BYU comes out of the bye week with a road trip to Fort Worth and a familiar hurdle in front of it: TCU.
On Saturday, the Cougars visit the Horned Frogs looking for their first win in Fort Worth since 2006. The last time BYU played TCU on the road, Josh Hoover put together a dominant performance in his first career start.
This time, though, BYU arrives as the favorite. ESPN FPI gives the Cougars a 70.5% chance to beat TCU, and the betting line has already shifted in their direction. BYU opened as a 5.5-point favorite and is now favored by 6.5 points.
The bye week brought a slight dip in BYU’s projected record, which moved from 9.0-3.0 to 8.9-3.1. The biggest change remains the same as before: the Utah game has become a much tougher ask than it looked in the preseason. FPI now gives BYU just a 34.8% chance to beat Utah.
Even with that slide, the broader picture still says BYU has handled expectations well. If the Cougars want to live up to preseason projections and stay in the College Football Playoff conversation, the math points to 10 or more regular-season wins. Based on FPI win probabilities, there is a 35.5% chance BYU gets there.
Still, the most likely finish remains 9-3.
Here’s how FPI sees the rest of the season: 6 wins or more - 99.6%
7 wins or more - 97.3% 8 wins or more - 88.3%
9 wins or more - 66.7% 10 wins or more - 35.5%
11 wins or more - 10.7% 12 wins (undefeated) - 1.3%
BYU also moved up two spots in FPI during the bye week and is now 17th nationally. That climb came after losses by Georgia and Iowa, which pushed Michigan and Oklahoma down in the rankings. BYU sits just behind Texas A&M and Penn State, both of whom also lost over the weekend.
At the top of the Big 12, Utah now holds the highest FPI rating in the league after a multi-score road win at Iowa State. The Utes have climbed to 12th nationally.
BYU’s conference title odds took a hit during the bye week, though the drop had more to do with Utah and Texas Tech than with the Cougars themselves. Both teams won convincingly, which boosted their FPI ratings.
What stands out most is how FPI sees the Big 12 race: a clear three-team fight. Outside of Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU, no other team in the league has better than a 3.6% chance to win it. FPI gives those three teams an 82% chance to produce the conference champion.
BYU’s College Football Playoff odds also slipped, tied to the lower odds of winning the Big 12.
In Other News...
BYUs Big 12 Path Suddenly Runs Through Two Huge Tests
BYU used its weekend off to catch its breath, but the break did little to simplify the road ahead. The Cougars return to Big 12 play next weekend at TCU, and the conversation around their season is already shifting toward how they handle the stretch that follows, with Iowa State waiting as another major test. With BYU still in the mix near the top of the conference picture, every week now feels like a sorting exercise, especially in a league where the standings remain crowded and a few teams still have a realistic path to the championship game.
The Cougars have given themselves a chance because of the way they have played on offense, while their defense has been good enough to keep them in the race. But the next two games will say plenty about whether that profile translates against the kind of competition that can separate contenders from the pack. Utah, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Houston remain part of the broader Big 12 conversation too, which only adds to the pressure on BYU as it heads into a run that could either strengthen its case or leave it chasing from behind. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Bye Week Brought A Telling Shift In The Top 25
BYUs bye week arrived at a useful moment, not just for rest but for perspective. While the Cougars sat out, the broader college football picture kept moving, and the latest Top 25 ballot offered a reminder of how quickly the sport can shift when teams keep stacking wins and standout performances.
Texas stayed at No. 1 in the ranking, with Miami, Notre Dame, Georgia and Ohio State filling out the top tier, a snapshot that says as much about recent form as it does about reputation. For BYU, the takeaway is less about any single slot and more about the pressure to stay in the conversation when the calendar and the standings both start tightening. [Read more 🡒]
Utah Just Sent A Clear Message In The Latest AP Poll
BYUs place in the AP Top 25 took a small hit after Week 4, slipping from No. 9 to No. 10 as the latest rankings settled in. The Cougars still sit well inside the national conversation, but the movement around them underscored how crowded the Big 12 picture is becoming, with Utah climbing two spots to No. 13 and other league teams continuing to jockey for position.
Oklahoma State also joined the poll at No. 19 after its win over West Virginia, adding another layer to a conference race that already has plenty of traffic. Texas Tech and Houston held steady or moved up as well, so for BYU the message from the latest poll was simple: every week is going to matter, and the margin between a rise and a slide is already razor thin. [Read more 🡒]