BYU’s playoff path is still alive, and the Cougars don’t need a perfect storm to keep it that way.
After the latest College Football Playoff rankings, BYU slipped only one spot following its loss to Utah, dropping from No. 9 to No. 10.
That keeps Kalani Sitake’s team squarely in the conversation with three games left, even if the 12-team format leaves no room for comfort. In a 24-team playoff, the Cougars would already be in.
In this year’s setup, they’re still hanging on the edge.
Sitake made it clear he’d rather not wait for the expanded field to arrive next season.
“I wish it were 24 this year,” Sitake said. “I think there’s a lot of interest, and there’s a lot of people that were against it, but most of the … people that are against it are people that aren’t even in the business.”
BYU sits at 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12, which leaves the Cougars in third place in the conference standings with two losses. That means the road to Arlington, Texas, for the Big 12 title game on Dec. 4 is still open, but it comes with plenty of scoreboard watching.
For BYU to reach the conference championship, it needs help. Texas Tech has to lose at least once down the stretch, or Utah has to drop two of its final three games.
The most straightforward path is also the one that asks for a lot: BYU wins out, Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma State and Houston falls to Baylor. If that happens, the Cougars would likely finish as the No. 2 team in the league and set up a rematch with Utah in Texas.
There are other tiebreaker routes, too, including a scenario where the Utes lose their remaining two road games. Those possibilities exist, but they get thinner by the week.
Still, making the Big 12 title game may not even be the best outcome for BYU’s playoff chances.
As strange as it sounds, the Cougars could be better off staying out of Arlington altogether. A loss in the conference championship game would give them a third defeat, and that might be enough to knock them out of at-large contention. After Tuesday’s ranking, why invite that risk?
ESPN’s playoff predictor gives BYU a 98% chance to make the field if it wins out and does not reach the conference championship game. That number falls to 75% if the Cougars lose in the title game.
The biggest reason BYU still has real hope is the October win over No. 5 Notre Dame.
That result could end up being the best win in college football by season’s end, and it gives the committee a clear reason to keep the Cougars in the mix. It also helps explain why a loss like the one to UCF does not have to be fatal if BYU closes strong.
If Notre Dame keeps winning, that could help BYU even more, as long as the Cougars handle their own business over the final three weeks.
Sitake, for his part, likes where the sport is headed even if he wishes the change came sooner.
“I think it’s a good idea,” Sitake said of the expanded playoff. “I mean, you’re looking at percentages of teams that play, and then how many can make it to a tournament … and this makes sense to expand it that way.
The numbers now are a little bit closer to what all the other sports are doing as well. I think it’s a good move.”
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What makes the discussion especially interesting from BYUs side is the broader shift in how the league is being viewed. The argument now is less about brand names and more about resumes, with the Big 12 suddenly looking capable of stacking up well against the Big Ten and even making a case for as many as three playoff bids. For BYU, that means every week carries more weight in a conference race that could end up shaping the national field. [Read more 🡒]