BYU is headed for a slide in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings. The only real question is how steep the drop will be.
The Cougars took a competitive road loss to an undefeated Utah team, but that may not buy them much with the committee. BYU fans have already seen how little margin for error there is.
In 2024, the Cougars were sitting at No. 6 when they took their first loss to Kansas, then tumbled all the way to No. 14 the next week. They even landed one spot behind SMU, a team they had beaten on the road earlier that season.
That history is why the floor here feels ugly. In the worst-case scenario, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, and even a two-loss Big Ten team such as Iowa or USC could jump BYU and push the Cougars all the way down to No.
- If that happens, BYU would need plenty of help to get back into the at-large conversation.
But there’s also a case that the Cougars won’t fall nearly that far.
Saturday went about as well as it could have for BYU outside of its own loss and the results from Texas Tech and Houston, both of which escaped with wins in games that would have helped the Cougars. Notre Dame handled Miami, a result that should send the Fighting Irish into the top five. The Notre Dame are well on their way to finishing the season 11-1, which would give BYU one of the two or three best wins in college football this season.
And BYU wasn’t the only team in the top 15 that got punished on the field. No.
10 Ole Miss was embarrassed by Georgia at home. No.
12 Ohio State was embarassed by Oregon at home. No.
6 Kentucky lost 34-6 to Tennessee, and No. 14 LSU was blown out by Alabama.
That kind of carnage around BYU’s neighborhood gives the Cougars a real ceiling here. If the committee decides to lean on the strength of the Notre Dame win and the ugly results elsewhere, BYU could drop only a spot or two and still remain inside the projected playoff field.
The most likely landing spot, though, looks like a compromise between the floor and the ceiling. Tennessee and Notre Dame are expected to move ahead of BYU, and one of Kentucky, Texas Tech, or Wake Forest should also be placed above the Cougars. That would leave BYU at No. 12 in Tuesday’s rankings.
That would still keep the Cougars in strong shape for an at-large bid. With three weeks left, there’s enough time for teams ahead of BYU to stumble and open the door back into the 12-team field.
Right now, the cutoff for at-large teams sits at No. 11.
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UCF Just Kept BYUs Most Frustrating Loss In The Spotlight
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Alonza Barnett III, back after an injury, steered the late drive that set up the winning score, and Caden Pienings touchdown catch stood after a replay review. Will Stone then delivered the extra point after earlier missing one, sealing a victory that only added to the sense that UCF can still be a factor in the same conference picture BYU is trying to navigate. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs CFP Hopes Now Rest On A Brutal Big 12 Reality
Two straight eight-point losses have left BYU in a far more precarious spot than it was in just a couple of weeks ago. At 7-2, the Cougars still have a workable record, but the margin for error in the Big 12 has all but disappeared as the conference race tightens around them.
The challenge now is straightforward and unforgiving: BYU has to win its final three Big 12 games to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive. Even then, the road is crowded, with Utah sitting atop the standings and Texas Tech, Houston and several others close enough to complicate every tiebreaker and every championship scenario. [Read more 🡒]