BYU is about to learn a lot about itself when the first College Football Playoff rankings drop Tuesday at 5:00 PM Mountain Time.
This is familiar territory for the Cougars. They’ll be ranked in the opening release for the fifth time in the last seven seasons, and history says the committee has not been especially kind to BYU. Last season was the latest reminder: even after an 11-win regular season, the Cougars were left out despite what looked like a playoff-worthy résumé.
But this year could be different, or at least a little less punishing.
The biggest reason is Notre Dame. BYU’s win over the Fighting Irish gives the Cougars something they’ve never had going into the initial rankings: a top 10 win over a national power.
Notre Dame is expected to land in the top 10, and if the AP Poll is any guide, the Irish could even crack the top five. That matters because it gives BYU a headline result the committee can’t ignore.
The real question is how much the committee values that result compared with the rougher parts of BYU’s profile. The Cougars’ road loss to UCF in overtime and the lack of control in games against Arizona State and TCU are the obvious pressure points.
If Notre Dame is ranked ahead of BYU, that would suggest the committee is leaning hard on those negatives. If BYU is placed ahead of Notre Dame, it would be a strong sign that on-field results still carry real weight.
That would also give BYU a better shot at an at-large bid.
And that at-large conversation is where these rankings get especially important.
If BYU wins out, it reaches the Big 12 title game at 11-1. Lose the championship game, and the Cougars would still be in the field thanks to wins over Notre Dame and Utah.
Win the Big 12, and the automatic bid takes care of everything. The bigger question is whether BYU could afford another regular-season loss and still sneak into the 12-team playoff at 10-2.
The AP Poll says BYU is seventh, but the gap from No. 3 through No. 8 is tight. In fact, BYU is closer to third than ninth because of the drop-off after the top eight, at least among teams with one loss or fewer.
If the committee sees that same cluster as a near toss-up, BYU’s head-to-head win could push the Cougars above Notre Dame and into the top four or five. That would be a major clue that BYU has some room to breathe.
The rest of the Big 12 will matter too.
Arizona should be in the top 25 even after losing to Texas Tech, and that matters for BYU’s résumé and for the league as a whole. Utah and Texas Tech are the two teams to watch most closely.
Utah is third in the AP Poll, but there’s reason to think the committee could have them lower, maybe in the 7-8 range, because they don’t have a signature win over another projected playoff team. If Utah does land there, it would suggest one loss could knock the Utes out, just as one loss knocked BYU out last year.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, does not appear likely to get much help from the committee. The Red Raiders have played one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12 and one of the easiest in the Power Four, and they were blown out by Cincinnati. They’ll probably be looking at a spot in the 12-14 range and hoping for chaos ahead of them.
For the Big 12 to get two teams into the playoff, BYU and Utah probably both need to be in the top seven.
There are also a few warning signs that would tell us the committee is not sold on BYU. The first would be if 6-2 Arizona is left out entirely.
That would hurt both BYU and the Big 12. The next would be if Wake Forest is close to BYU in the rankings.
The Demon Deacons have rolled through their schedule, but they have not beaten a top 25 team, and their best loss is to No. 1 Miami.
They also needed overtime to get past Purdue. Their remaining slate - Merrimack, SMU, Georgia Tech, and Duke - makes an 11-1 finish feel likely, which is exactly why BYU needs separation from them.
The biggest red flag would be a two-loss SEC team landing ahead of BYU despite the Cougars’ win over Notre Dame. There are several of those teams clustered in the AP Poll, including Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, and Missouri. If one or two of them are placed ahead of BYU, that would be a clear sign the Cougars probably need to finish 11-1 in the regular season to get in.
And then there’s the upside. If the CFP rankings line up even loosely with the AP Poll, there’s a path where No.
1, No. 2, and No. 3 could all lose. In that scenario, BYU would own wins over No. 3 and No.
- If BYU beats Utah, Notre Dame beats Miami, and Ole Miss beats Georgia, the Cougars could even have a case to be No. 1 by next week.
Saturday morning suddenly looks like one of the biggest opportunities in program history.
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For a Cougars program still trying to force its way into that national discussion, being named among the teams on the fringe is a sign of how much attention the race is drawing. Klatt also pointed to the performances and upcoming challenges facing Miami and Utah, underscoring how much movement could still be coming as the season tightens and the rankings keep shifting. [Read more 🡒]