BYU walked into Tuesday night hoping its win over Notre Dame would buy some respect from the College Football Playoff committee. Instead, the Cougars got a familiar answer: not much.
The first CFP rankings of the season placed BYU at No. 9, making the Cougars the second-highest Big 12 team in the field and dropping them two spots from the latest AP Poll. It was a tough opening verdict, especially for a team that figured a Notre Dame victory might carry more weight.
The biggest twist came with Notre Dame itself. The Fighting Irish landed at No. 11 in the CFP rankings after sitting fourth in the AP Poll, and that slide undercut BYU’s resume in a major way.
Rather than boosting BYU for beating a highly ranked opponent, the committee seemed more interested in punishing Notre Dame for lacking a signature win. That decision left BYU paying the price.
The committee also leaned toward two-loss SEC teams Alabama and Texas, apparently valuing their quality wins more than BYU’s profile. That’s part of what makes the Cougars’ placement sting: the résumé argument didn’t break their way.
There’s also a clear warning sign in how the committee treated BYU’s road loss to UCF. The rankings suggest that defeat still weighs heavily, and the timing didn’t help. UCF followed that performance by getting embarrassed a week later against Baylor, which only sharpened the sense that the committee is looking at BYU through a harsh lens.
In fact, the UCF loss may have done far more damage than it first appeared. Without it, BYU’s case would look dramatically different.
The source material even makes the argument that the Cougars could have been No. 1 in the CFP rankings without that setback, with a better resume than Miami. Instead, BYU sits at No. 9, and the message is pretty clear: another loss, especially to Utah this weekend, could knock the Cougars outside the projected field.
Indiana offers the clearest comparison point. Both teams have the same record, but BYU owns two ranked wins while Indiana has none.
The Hoosiers have survived more close calls, yet their only loss came against Ohio State, and that has them all the way up at No. 4.
The committee’s priorities seem obvious here, even if they don’t stay consistent across the full top 25: who you lose to matters a lot.
Still, BYU isn’t out of the picture. The Cougars have a chance to change the conversation fast, and the path runs straight through Utah. The committee clearly respects the Utes, who checked in at No. 3, so a win over Utah would give BYU two of the best wins in the country.
That’s why this weekend looms so large. At least five teams in the top 14 are expected to lose, with more possible.
If BYU beats Utah and Notre Dame takes care of Miami, the Cougars could even find themselves inside the top three when the next rankings come out. That would make this the biggest game in the history of the BYU-Utah rivalry game.
This is also familiar territory for BYU. The Cougars have appeared in the CFP rankings five times in the last seven seasons, and with the exception of 2021, the committee has not treated them kindly. So while Tuesday night brought disappointment, it probably didn’t bring surprise.
The bigger question now is whether BYU can turn this into a springboard. If the Cougars finish 10-2 with losses to Utah and UCF and miss the playoff, that UCF game will be remembered as one of the most crushing defeats in program history. But if the path breaks the right way, there’s still a real opportunity ahead.
If the season ended today, BYU would be headed to UCLA in the first round. The Bruins are undefeated, but they don’t have a signature win and are without starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. A win there would send BYU to Miami, where the committee’s No. 1 team would be waiting.
That’s a brutal road, but not an impossible one. Miami has one of the best offenses in college football, yet its defense is suspect. There’s a scenario where BYU could win a shootout and reach the semifinals.
That’s what makes November feel so urgent for the Cougars. The opportunity is real, and the margin for error is thin.
BYU is talented enough to make the playoff and, once LJ Martin returns from injury, good enough to win there too. Now the challenge is simple: don’t waste it.
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Texas Draws Fresh Respect In Joel Klatt Ranking Debate
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For a Cougars program still trying to force its way into that national discussion, being named among the teams on the fringe is a sign of how much attention the race is drawing. Klatt also pointed to the performances and upcoming challenges facing Miami and Utah, underscoring how much movement could still be coming as the season tightens and the rankings keep shifting. [Read more 🡒]