BYU gets a strong rebound projection from ESPN’s Football Power Index as it heads back home to face ASU, with FPI giving the Cougars a 90.2% chance to win.
That makes ASU the easiest remaining game on BYU’s schedule, according to the model. The Cougars have at least a 75% chance to win every game left except the Utah matchup, which is shaping up as a tossup when BYU goes to Salt Lake in a few weeks.
The timing matters for BYU’s bigger picture. Last week, after the win over Notre Dame, the Cougars were given a 55% chance to finish with 11 or more wins. That number fell to 19% after the loss to UCF.
Even so, the path is still there. BYU’s playoff chances dropped from 70.6% to 49.0% after losing to the Knights, but the rest of the schedule still gives the Cougars a real shot to stabilize. If BYU gets to 11-1, it will reach the playoff no matter what happens in the Big 12 championship game.
The more precarious road is at 10-2. At that point, BYU would likely need a weak playoff bubble to slip in as an at-large team. More likely, the Cougars would need to win a tiebreaker just to get into the conference title game, then win that game too.
The Big 12 race itself is still completely unsettled. No team has better than a 35% chance to win the league, and the conference’s top contenders are about to spend the next few weeks knocking each other around.
Utah currently has the best odds to make the 12-team playoff field after beating Houston, and BYU is close behind. The Utes still have to face BYU, then head to Arizona after what will be an emotional rivalry game. Utah also has a dangerous road trip to Cincinnati this week.
Arizona, meanwhile, is in position to shake everything up. The Wildcats haven’t lost since falling to BYU in Week Two, and they’ve handled solid teams like Iowa State and Cincinnati along the way. Noah Fifita and company could blow the race open if they beat Texas Tech in Lubbock.
Texas Tech is not out of the picture either, even after losing last week. The Red Raiders still have a trip to Oklahoma State and also host Arizona this weekend.
Houston has the most favorable remaining schedule among the Big 12 contenders, though the Cougars are already carrying two conference losses.
There are six Big 12 teams with better than a 1% chance to make the playoff right now. The margin for error is thin, and the league’s front-runners are set to sort this out the hard way.
In Other News...
BYU Fans Have Every Reason To Be Furious After That Finish
The frustration around BYUs latest Big 12 finish is not coming out of nowhere. The conference has now acknowledged officiating errors in recent games involving BYU, UCF and Notre Dame, a blunt reminder that the discussion around missed calls has moved well beyond one isolated moment. ESPNs Rece Davis added to the criticism by pointing to the repeated administrative mistakes that have started to define too many late-game conversations across college football.
For BYU fans, the aggravation is only sharpened by how these decisions can tilt a game at the exact point when every snap matters most. Davis cited specific breakdowns, including an incorrect 10-second runoff and a roughing-the-kicker call that stirred debate in a double-overtime game, while a separate Week 1 controversy in the Big Ten involving Western Michigan and Michigan showed the problem is hardly confined to one league. The bigger concern now is not just the individual miss, but how often the sport seems to be asking fans and teams to live with them. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Suddenly Faces A Bigger Question After UCF Stunner
The shock of UCFs double-overtime upset over No. 2 BYU left the Cougars with more than just a blemish on the record. It also turned attention to how quickly a ranked team has to reset after a game that demanded everything, especially with UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins central to the win and now confirmed to keep the job heading into the next week.
For BYU, the bigger question is what comes next in a Big 12 race that can flip fast, and Baylor is waiting with its own uncertainty after firing Dave Aranda and turning to Joe Klanderman as interim head coach. Scott Frost and his players talked afterward about sustaining the same edge that carried them through the upset, but the Cougars will be trying to answer for a loss that changes the conversation around them almost immediately. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Suddenly Faces A Secondary Test It Cant Afford To Fail
BYUs defense is about to get another look at its depth in the secondary, with cornerback Evan Johnson expected to sit out the upcoming game against Arizona State after getting hurt against UCF. Kalani Sitake said the injury is not season-ending, but the Cougars are planning as if Johnson will miss this week, which puts more pressure on a unit that has already had to adjust on the fly.
Arizona State brings its own uncertainty at quarterback, with Mikey Keene listed as questionable because of a leg injury. If Keene cannot go, freshman Jake Fette is expected to get the start, adding another layer of unpredictability to a matchup that already has plenty of moving parts for BYU to sort through on the back end. [Read more 🡒]