BYU’s bye week won’t feel all that quiet.
A week after cracking the AP top 10 at No. 9, the Cougars get time to reset before a nine-game stretch that opens at TCU. But while BYU sits idle, the rankings picture could shift in a big way around the country.
Based on SP+ game probabilities, there’s a 54% chance a team ranked ahead of BYU loses to an unranked opponent this weekend, and an 80% chance that either No. 1 Texas or No.
4 Ole Miss drops a game to a ranked opponent.
That leaves BYU watching a crowded board, with several games that could push the Cougars up or knock them down.
One of the most straightforward swing games is Northwestern at No. 5 Indiana.
Northwestern is unbeaten, but it’s walking into a road game as a three-touchdown underdog. Indiana has not been seriously challenged this season, and even against lesser opponents, the Hoosiers have not looked as overwhelming as they did a year ago.
An upset is a long shot, but not one you can completely dismiss.
The Texas-Tennessee game could create a mess for BYU either way. If Tennessee knocks off top-ranked Texas, the Volunteers would likely surge into the top 10 and pass BYU in the process.
But if Texas loses, the Longhorns probably still stay inside the top 10. So a Tennessee win could end up sending BYU backward even though the Cougars aren’t playing.
Illinois at Ohio State is another game where the upset feels unlikely, but the ripple effects could be real if the Buckeyes stumble. Ohio State is favored by multiple scores at home, yet this is one of the matchups that could do real damage to the teams sitting in front of BYU.
Then there’s Oklahoma at No. 2 Georgia, which feels like the kind of game BYU fans should be pulling for the Sooners to steal.
Oklahoma has been underwhelming, but a win here would help both BYU and the Big 12. The Sooners still have a brutal schedule ahead, and the source outlook is clear: it’s very unlikely they finish the year with fewer than three or four losses, which makes them a poor bet to stay in playoff position deep into the season.
No. 4 Ole Miss also presents a tricky scenario for BYU.
The Rebels are coming off an emotional win over LSU and now head to Florida, where the Gators have improved. A Florida win could send the Gators rocketing into the top 15, and possibly the top 10, while Ole Miss likely wouldn’t tumble far.
That makes it another possible lose-lose spot for BYU in the rankings.
No. 8 Alabama has its own test with South Carolina coming to Tuscaloosa.
Alabama had some issues on defense against Florida State, and South Carolina brings a dangerous offense into the matchup. If the Gamecocks pull off the upset, that would be a major boost for BYU’s standing.
LSU’s meeting with ranked Texas A&M also matters. A Tigers win would probably move LSU ahead of BYU in the poll. Even so, the bigger picture still matters: both LSU and Texas A&M have difficult games ahead, and a second loss this early only helps BYU in the long run because one of them is guaranteed to take another hit.
BYU’s old ranking battle with USC is in play too. The Trojans and Cougars have been going back and forth in the AP poll since the preseason, and USC could move ahead of BYU with a win over Oregon. But Oregon already has a loss, including one to a Big 12 team, so the better outcome for BYU may actually be a Ducks win.
There’s also a game that matters because of BYU’s next opponent. TCU’s offense, after a terrible start, has bounced back over the last few weeks, though it has done so against weak competition.
That makes UCF worth watching closely as well, since the Knights have been all over the map in September. For BYU, it’s a chance to scout both the next opponent and another team that has been hard to pin down.
And then there’s Utah, BYU’s archrival, heading into its first real test of the season at Iowa State. The Cyclones have been better than expected, and BYU will host them in two weeks. So this one doubles as a look at two future BYU opponents.
In Other News...
BYUs Strong Start Just Got A Transfer Story Fans Will Love
BYUs early-season momentum has been built in part on the kind of trench play that tends to travel, and ESPNs Max Olson took note by including offensive tackle Paki Finau on his sleeper all-transfer team. Finau has started every game at left tackle, giving the Cougars stability on the edge while helping anchor an offensive line that has been one of the more encouraging pieces of the start to the 2026 season.
Olsons list is meant to spotlight transfer players who have made a strong impression without arriving with the loudest preseason billing, and Finau is not the only Big 12 name on it. Utah defensive tackle Jireh Moe also earned mention for the disruption he has brought up front, a reminder that the conferences transfer class is already shaping games in ways that were not fully captured by the rankings a few months ago. [Read more 🡒]
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The timing adds another layer to an already familiar debate around postseason fairness, especially with SEC coaches pressing the issue after the move to nine conference games. The committees intent is clear enough, but how much this actually changes the way teams like BYU are viewed in practice is the part everyone will be watching. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Transfers Are Already Defining The Cougars Through Three Games
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Roger Saleapaga and Kyler Kasper have become especially important in that mix, giving BYU experienced production at a time when early-season identity matters. Jr Sia has seen a much smaller role so far, which makes the transfer evaluation around this team especially interesting as the Cougars keep leaning on that group to define the seasons next stretch. [Read more 🡒]