BYU’s path back to the Big 12 championship game got a lot narrower after Saturday’s loss to Utah, but it did not disappear.
The Cougars no longer control their own fate, and the equation is simple from here: they have to win out. There is no realistic route to Arlington with a third conference loss, which means BYU has to finish the regular season by beating Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati. Two of those final three games are at home, giving the Cougars at least a little room to work with after burning through the cushion they built by beating Notre Dame.
The bigger issue is what happens around them. Texas Tech is the first team BYU needs to stumble, and the Red Raiders came close to handing BYU a huge break on Saturday night before escaping West Virginia.
Tech survived despite giving up 48 points, helped by a wild fourth-down play where Tommy Castellanos threw the ball up and a Red Raider somehow came down with it. That win kept Texas Tech in control of its own destiny, but only barely.
There’s still a real chance the Red Raiders don’t finish clean. Using FPI win probabilities, Texas Tech has a 30% chance to win its final three games and reach 11-1.
The stretch is no joke: back-to-back road games at Oklahoma State and Baylor before a season finale at home against TCU. If the defense keeps leaking points, that trip through the next two weeks could get ugly.
Houston is the other team BYU has to keep an eye on. The Cougars sit with two conference losses, and in a lot of the tiebreaker paths, that puts them in the driver’s seat over BYU, Texas Tech and others. Houston barely avoided disaster on Saturday against Cincinnati, when the Bearcats were moving to tie the game before dropping a backwards pass and coughing up the fumble.
The good news for Houston is that its closing schedule is manageable, even if it includes two straight road games. The Cougars go to Colorado and West Virginia before finishing at home against Baylor. FPI gives Houston a 40% chance to win out.
If Texas Tech loses at least once, the Big 12 picture gets messy fast. A tiebreaker would come into play, and if BYU and Texas Tech are the only 7-2 teams, BYU would get the edge because Tech lost to Cincinnati, a common opponent. But that’s only one slice of the larger puzzle.
There are also paths where Oklahoma State, Arizona and other two-loss teams get pulled into the mix. In those cases, the league could end up sorting things out by strength of conference schedule. If enough results break the right way - a Kansas win over West Virginia is one example - BYU could even come out on top in a four- or five-team tiebreaker and earn a shot at Utah in the Big 12 championship game.
Still, the cleanest route is also the most demanding: BYU wins out, Texas Tech takes another loss, and Houston drops one more as well. If that happens, the Cougars would be headed back to Arlington for the second straight season.
In Other News...
BYU Could Be Getting Two Key Starters Back At The Right Time
BYUs depth chart for the Baylor game offered a welcome bit of movement, with running back LJ Martin and cornerback Evan Johnson both appearing for the first time since injuries knocked them out. Martin already eased back in last week with limited touches, and his presence now points to a bigger workload as the Cougars try to settle back into a rhythm on offense. Johnsons return to the chart is just as notable on the other side of the ball, especially after he missed the last two games.
There is still some uncertainty layered into the update, though, because tight end Roger Saleapaga is also listed despite his recent injury. For BYU, the timing matters as much as the names themselves, with the Cougars heading into a matchup where reinforcements at key spots could help stabilize both the ground game and the secondary. The only question now is how much each player can actually handle once the game starts. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Just Became Part Of A Brutal Utah Milestone
BYUs latest trip through the rivalry left it on the wrong side of a significant Utah moment, as the Utes moved up to No. 2 in the AP Top 25 after beating the Cougars. It is the highest ranking in Utah program history, and it comes with the kind of momentum that can reshape a season in a hurry, especially when the team at the center of it is still trying to keep its focus on the week-to-week grind.
Morgan Scalley said the message inside the Utah program remains the same: treat every opponent the same and keep working on the parts of the game that still need cleaning up. The next test is a road date with No. 22 Arizona, which gives the Utes another ranked matchup and another chance to prove this climb is about more than one big win over BYU. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Freshman Bruce Branch Is Drawing An AJ Dybantsa Question
Kevin Youngs ability to land elite talent has already changed the conversation around BYU mens basketball, and the latest name drawing attention is freshman Bruce Branch III. Branch, a top prospect who reclassified to 2026, has started to show more in recent games, and Young has pointed to the kind of defensive upside that can make a young player valuable long before the offense fully catches up.
The comparison naturally brings up AJ Dybantsa, the one-and-done star BYU secured in December 2024 before he went on to lead the nation in scoring and become the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. Young has even described Branchs style in similar terms, which only adds to the intrigue around how he develops the freshman early and how quickly that progress might show up in a BYU rotation built around high-end recruits. [Read more 🡒]