BYU comes into its Week 5 trip to TCU with a 3-0 record and a week of rest behind it, while the Horned Frogs are still looking for their first win over a power conference opponent this season.
The Cougars were off in Week 4 after their hot start, and now they head on the road for a Big 12 matchup against a TCU team that has already taken two losses to power conference competition. The Horned Frogs dropped their opener to UNC in Week 1 and then fell to UCF in Week 4, with wins over Grambling and Arkansas State in between.
One matchup stands out immediately: BYU running back LJ Martin against a TCU run defense that has not been especially sturdy. Martin has been BYU’s top offensive threat so far, ripping off 7.8 yards per carry on his first 42 touches. If that efficiency holds up, BYU’s offense should have a clear path to control the game.
That’s part of why the spread looks light at 6.5 points. TCU has not looked like a strong team through the first month, ranking 64th in net adjusted EPA per play and losing by at least five points to two opponents that are clearly below BYU’s level. On top of that, the Horned Frogs sit just 50th in opponent EPA per rush, which only strengthens the case for Martin to have another productive outing.
The numbers point in one direction: if TCU can’t slow the run, keeping this game within the number becomes a tough ask.
In Other News...
BYU Heads To TCU With New Availability Questions At Key Spots
BYUs first availability report for its trip to TCU brought a few notable absences into focus, and the biggest ones land on the offensive line and in the middle of the defense. Starting right tackle Andrew Gentry and linebacker Siale Esera were both listed as out, giving the Cougars some important lineup decisions to sort through before facing a Horned Frogs team that can make teams pay for any thin spots.
Freshman kicker Brody Laga also showed up on the report as out, an unexpected wrinkle for a BYU team that has been trying to keep stability in its special teams operation. TCUs side of the report was less alarming, with EDGE rusher Zach Chapman listed as questionable even as Sonny Dykes said he expects him to play, so BYU will be watching both the trenches and the kicking game closely as kickoff approaches. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Heads Into TCU With A New Turnover Concern
BYUs offense spent the first half of the season avoiding the kind of mistakes that can flip a game, but that changed in a hurry against Colorado State. In the second half, Bear Bachmeier and Treyson Bourguet each threw interceptions on consecutive drives, marking the Cougars first two turnovers of the year and giving the offense a fresh issue to clean up as the schedule tightens.
Now comes a conference road test at TCU, where ball security figures to be under an even brighter spotlight because of the expected wet conditions. Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick took responsibility for both picks and explained the circumstances behind the plays, but the larger concern for BYU is less about blame than about whether a previously careful offense can stay that way in a tougher environment. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Faces A Dangerous Test Against A Desperate Big 12 Opponent
Kalani Sitakes BYU team is headed into a stretch where the margin for error keeps shrinking, and the Big 12s broader coaching pressure cooker only sharpens the stakes. Around the league, coaches such as Lance Leipold at Kansas, Deion Sanders at Colorado and Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia are all dealing with the kind of late-season scrutiny that turns every matchup into more than just another game, and BYU is not separated from that conversation.
For the Cougars, the next test carries the feel of a measuring stick because the opponent is playing with urgency and the conference race is still shaping the leagues mood week by week. Sitake has built enough credibility to avoid panic talk, but in a league where momentum can swing quickly, a difficult night against a desperate Big 12 team would only add to the pressure that follows every result this time of year. [Read more 🡒]