BYU’s path to the College Football Playoff is still very much alive, but the margin for error has vanished.
After last weekend’s loss to Utah, the No. 10 Cougars no longer control their own fate in the Big 12 race.
They also can’t afford another slip if they want to stay in the playoff conversation. ESPN’s FPI says the road ahead starts with Baylor, and it views Saturday’s matchup in Provo as the toughest game left on BYU’s schedule.
FPI gives BYU a 68.5% chance to beat Baylor at home. That number matters because the Cougars are coming off an emotional loss to a rival, and a stumble here would make the rest of the season much harder to manage. If BYU handles Baylor, its odds to win out rise sharply.
Right now, FPI says BYU has a 42% chance to win its remaining games and finish the regular season 10-2. If the Cougars get past Baylor, that number jumps to 61%. That’s why Saturday carries so much weight for a team trying to keep both its conference and playoff hopes intact.
The Big 12 picture is even more complicated. BYU’s chances to reach the league title game took a major hit after the Utah loss.
To get there, the Cougars need to win out, and they also need Texas Tech and Houston to each lose at least one more game. Houston, because of tiebreakers, sits in the same spot as BYU in the conference race.
Utah remains the team to beat in the league, with FPI giving the Utes a 56% chance to win the Big 12. Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Baylor are still alive too, but all three would have to win out to reach Arlington.
Baylor is especially interesting because the Bears still have a real chance to shake up the standings over the final stretch. They close the season against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston, giving them a direct shot at the conference’s top contenders.
Even with only an 8% chance to win the Big 12, BYU still has a 41% chance to make the College Football Playoff. That lines up almost exactly with its 42% chance to win out, which is the clearest sign of where things stand: if BYU runs the table, FPI believes the Cougars are in.
In Other News...
BYU Fans Suddenly Have A Very Uncomfortable Reason To Watch Utah
The latest College Football Playoff rankings gave the Big 12 a jolt of credibility, with Utah sitting at No. 2, BYU at No. 10, Texas Tech at No. 12 and Houston at No. 14. For BYU, the placement is a reminder that the Cougars are still very much in the mix, but also that the path ahead is crowded and shaped by what happens around them as much as what happens in Provo.
Utahs position is the one that now looms largest for BYU fans, because the Utes are in prime shape to reach the playoff if they keep winning and potentially add a Big 12 title to their resume. That creates the uncomfortable part for Cougar supporters: the conference race, the rankings and the playoff math are all tangled together, and BYUs hopes may depend on watching a rival navigate the exact finish line the Cougars want to reach themselves. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Baylor Game Plan Just Got More Complicated Than Fans Hoped
BYUs first injury report for the Baylor game gave a clearer picture of where the Cougars stand, and it was not exactly the clean bill of health fans might have wanted. Running back LJ Martin was listed as probable, while linebacker Isaiah Glasker was questionable and cornerback Evan Johnson and tight end Roger Saleapaga were doubtful. With several BYU players already having stepped into larger roles because of injuries, the report only adds to the sense that the Cougars are still managing their depth as they head into another Big 12 test.
Baylors report was shorter, with six players listed and starting defensive lineman Devonte Tezino the only notable name on it. Even so, the contrast does not make BYUs side look any simpler, especially with some injured Cougars expected to miss the game. For a team that has had to lean on next-man-up production already, the final availability picture could shape how aggressive the game plan can be once kickoff arrives. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Is About To Get A Scoring Boost It Really Needed
BYU is set to get a welcome addition back in the rotation when Dawson Baker is expected to return for the upcoming game against Montana State. After being sidelined for nearly a year following multiple knee injuries and surgeries, Baker has finally been cleared to play, giving the Cougars a chance to add a proven scoring option they have been missing.
Bakers return matters because BYU has been looking for more punch off the bench, and his presence should help in both depth and offense. Coaches and players have been upbeat about what he can bring, and even after such a long layoff, there is real anticipation around how quickly he can settle back into a meaningful role. [Read more 🡒]