College football’s opening weekend could shake up BYU’s spot in the AP Top 25 before the Cougars even take the field.
BYU starts the year at No. 14, its highest preseason ranking since 1985, and there’s a real chance one or more teams sitting ahead of it will stumble. Based on SP+ win probabilities, there’s only a 32% chance all four of those teams win this weekend.
The biggest test among the bunch belongs to LSU, where the Lane Kiffin era begins with a home game against Clemson. LSU enters the season with plenty of questions after a rough year, though voters still gave the Tigers some credit for the brand and the coach.
Clemson, meanwhile, has its own problems after a season that fell well short of expectations. The Tigers were picked as ACC favorites and treated like a national title threat, but they finished 7-6 and outside the top 25.
SP+ gives LSU a 73% chance to beat Clemson.
Miami is another team positioned ahead of BYU after sneaking into last season’s playoff just ahead of the Cougars. The Hurricanes made the most of that opportunity and rode it all the way to a national championship berth. They open the season ranked No. 7 and are favored heavily by SP+, which gives them an 85% chance to win on the road at Stanford.
The weekend’s only ranked matchup sends No. 9 Ole Miss against No.
24 Louisville. Ole Miss is dealing with a major reset after losing a lot of production and its head coach from a team that reached the semifinals last year.
Of the four games on this list, this is the one SP+ sees as the most likely upset, with the Rebels given a 63% chance to beat Louisville.
USC is tied with BYU at No. 14 and could jump the Cougars with a strong performance against Fresno State. SP+ likes the Trojans in that one, giving them an 89% chance to win.
The last game to watch is East Carolina at No. 13 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
It’s the least likely upset here, according to SP+, which gives Alabama a 92% chance to win. The Crimson Tide will also be breaking in a new starting quarterback.
In Other News...
Former BYU Transfers Are Popping Up In Some Uncomfortable Places
BYUs transfer list for the 2026 season has already started to leave a few familiar names scattered around the college football map, and not all of those destinations will feel neutral to Cougar fans. McCae Hillstead, once part of BYUs quarterback room, has landed at Utah State and has already won the starting job there, while Jake Griffin is set to suit up for Arizona. Around them, other former Cougars have spread out to UCLA, Iowa State, UAB and Duke, giving BYU followers plenty of chances to run into old personnel in new colors.
The broader picture is even more interesting because the ex-Cougars are not just moving to random outposts. Some have shown up at places like Utah, Michigan, Arizona State and Oklahoma State, which adds an extra layer of familiarity and, in a few cases, a little edge to future matchups and scouting chatter. For a program that is always balancing roster turnover with recruiting momentum, seeing former players pop up in so many corners of the sport is a reminder that the transfer era keeps turning every exit into a potential subplot. [Read more 🡒]
BYU May Have Found A Bigger Role For Tausili Akana
Tausili Akana arrived at BYU with the kind of pedigree that makes people wonder when the production will finally catch up. A former Texas edge prospect and consensus four-star recruit, he came to Provo after two seasons to chase the ceiling that made him such a coveted player in the first place, and the early signs of fall have been encouraging. Akana has added weight, looked better against the run and emerged as the top option at field backer on the initial depth chart, which suggests the Cougars may have found a much larger role for him than the one he carried coming in.
Akana has also sounded comfortable with where he is off the field, pointing to BYU's culture and the development he has gotten from the coaching staff. For a player whose upside has long been part of the conversation, that combination matters, because it often takes both physical growth and the right environment before a gifted transfer turns into a real defensive factor. BYU is hoping this latest version of Akana is closer to the one it envisioned when he first made his way to campus. [Read more 🡒]
USC Fans May Not Love This Name In The Next Coaching Cycle
With the college football season just getting started, the usual early whisper campaign around the next coaching cycle is already taking shape. A new look at the market points to three names that could surface if Power Four jobs open up, with Kliff Kingsbury, Mike Norvell and Kalani Sitake all mentioned as possible fits depending on how the fall unfolds.
Sitakes inclusion is the one that should matter most to BYU fans, even if nothing is imminent and nothing is decided. He has built enough credibility to keep showing up in these kinds of conversations, which is a compliment as much as a warning, because the more successful the Cougars look under him, the more often his name figures to appear whenever a major program starts casting a wide net. [Read more 🡒]