As the season moves toward its midpoint, BYU’s place in the conversation is getting harder to dismiss. The Cougars sit at No. 8 in the AP poll, and that number is starting to look less like a courtesy ranking and more like a fair reflection of what they’ve put on tape.
Even with BYU holding steady in the poll, the vote total jumped by 100 points from last week. That matters, because it suggests voters came away more impressed after seeing the Cougars in a standalone game against Iowa State.
It also puts BYU on the doorstep of something much bigger: the first top 10 matchup ever at Lavell Edwards Stadium, with No. 2 Notre Dame coming to town.
A win would almost certainly launch BYU into the top five for the first time in 30 years and push the Cougars into legitimate national championship territory. A loss?
That opens up a much messier debate.
The beauty of this BYU team is that the numbers are no longer fighting its resume. Predictive metrics, which have historically been skeptical of the Cougars, have moved much closer to the AP view.
BYU has climbed an average of five spots over the last two weeks, and its SP+ ranking now sits at 11th, the program’s highest mark since 2020, when BYU finished seventh. The Cougars’ 21.6 rating would make them a nearly 3-point favorite over that 2020 team on a neutral field and a half-point underdog to the 1984 national championship squad.
In other words, the computers are treating this group like a playoff-caliber team.
That shift is tied to balance. BYU is graded as the 19th-best offense in the country, paired with a defense that sits just outside the top 10.
The box scores have not fully captured how dominant the Cougars have been. Their actual scoring margin against FBS opponents is around 12 points per game, but the models say their control of games has looked more like a 21-point average margin.
That gap is why the idea of positive regression keeps coming up around this team.
The résumé side is strong, too. BYU is unbeaten, and while the schedule has not been a gauntlet, it has not been empty either.
SP+ and FEI rate that schedule somewhere in the 55-65 range, which is a little better than the FBS average. Against that slate, BYU has done enough to back up its ranking.
TCU, Arizona, and Iowa State all count as top 50 wins, and Arizona has been rated as high as the top 20 in SP+. So while the Cougars have not faced an elite opponent yet, they have taken care of teams that have proven to be real.
That is the biggest change in the way BYU is being viewed. For what feels like the first time during this 28-4 run, the predictive numbers are catching up to the résumé numbers.
The case can even be made that they still have not fully caught up, especially because BYU has not been pushing for style points late in games. Either way, the old argument that the Cougars were just surviving has started to fade.
They are winning because they are better.
All of that gets tested against Notre Dame. SP+ has been unusually sharp on BYU this season, projecting the Cougars’ total margin across four FBS games within one point.
It also likes BYU more than the current betting market does, grading the Cougars as a 4-point underdog compared with the 10-point line. That projection does not include the running back situation, but it does reinforce the larger point: what BYU is doing appears real.
Saturday will tell the rest of the story. If the Cougars are going to turn this ranking into something even bigger, they have the profile to do it.
In Other News...
BYU Suddenly Has A Notre Dame Backfield Decision To Make
BYU got a notable backfield development this week when second-string running back Sione Moa was medically cleared to play and took part in practice ahead of the matchup with Notre Dame, according to offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick. Moa had been sidelined since suffering a knee injury in the season opener and undergoing surgery in September, so his return after five weeks points to a recovery that appears to have moved faster than many might have expected.
Sione Moas availability still isnt settled, though, and the Cougars are weighing whether he is ready for the physical demands that come with this particular game. For a BYU offense that could use added depth in the backfield, his status adds a real layer of intrigue heading into a high-profile test, with the staff having to decide how much to lean on a player who is back on the field but not yet a sure thing for Saturday. [Read more 🡒]
Clayton Young Just Gave BYU Fans A Stunning Reason To Celebrate
Less than a month after nursing a hamstring injury, Clayton Young gave BYU fans plenty to smile about at the Chicago Marathon. The former Cougar delivered a personal best, finished seventh overall and led all Americans in 2:05:23, turning in one of the most eye-catching performances by a U.S. runner in recent memory.
Young came up just short of the American record held by his training partner Conner Mantz, but the bigger story for BYU supporters is how quickly he bounced back and how well he handled the recovery process. He took a cautious route, tested the hamstring in training runs before signing up to race, and then showed he was ready for the biggest stage with a result that should only add to the buzz around the program. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Just Landed A Huge Recruiting Opportunity With A Five-Star Wing
BYU is set to get a major look in the recruitment of AJ Williams, one of the top wings in the 2027 class, when the five-star prospect arrives in Provo on October 15. Williams, a 6-foot-7 standout from Eagles Landing Christian Academy, has trimmed his list to 10 schools and already taken several visits, putting the Cougars firmly in the mix at a time when every impression matters.
What makes this trip especially noteworthy is how much momentum BYU appears to have already built in the race for a player ranked No. 5 in his class. No decision date has been announced, but with Williams still weighing a handful of top options and an early signing period looming in November 2026, the Cougars now have a chance to strengthen their standing on the kind of recruit that can change the outlook of a class. [Read more 🡒]