BYU’s win over Notre Dame changed the playoff picture in a hurry, but ESPN’s Football Power Index is also flagging a spot where the Cougars could slip. The model gives BYU a 70.7% chance to beat UCF, but it still sees enough risk to call this one of the trickier games left on the schedule.
That caution makes sense on paper. BYU is coming off an emotional top-10 win at home, then has to travel two time zones to face a UCF team that is 3-3 and ranked 51st in FPI.
The Knights have stayed competitive deep into games, too, hanging around in the fourth quarter against Pitt, Houston, and Oklahoma State. Oddsmakers caught the danger early: BYU opened as a 9.5-point favorite, the line moved three points by the end of the night, and the Cougars are now favored by 6.5 points.
Excluding the Utah game, UCF is the toughest remaining opponent on BYU’s schedule by FPI. Still, the broader outlook around the Cougars looks much stronger after the Notre Dame win.
Before the season, 9-3 was the most likely regular-season finish. After beating Iowa State and moving to 5-0, 10-2 became the likeliest path.
Now, after knocking off Notre Dame, 11-1 sits at the top of the board.
Using FPI’s game-by-game projections, BYU has a 55% chance to win 11 or more games in 2026. But the road to that number is not automatic.
The model says BYU has only a 36% chance to go 5-0 against UCF, Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati. To finish undefeated, the Cougars would also need to win at Utah, and FPI gives them a 16.1% shot at that.
That number is up from 2.1% last week.
The playoff odds got a major boost as well. BYU now has a 70.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff, up from roughly 33% before the Notre Dame game. That puts the Cougars at the front of the Big 12 race in FPI’s view.
The model isn’t treating the Notre Dame win like a massive reshuffle, though. BYU did not move up in the FPI rankings after beating the team that entered that game No. 1 in the model.
The article points to that as a glaring issue with the system, especially given how much margin of victory matters to FPI’s math. BYU has also pulled starters and taken knees in some games to get backups reps, which can keep the numbers from looking as strong as they might otherwise.
Even with that criticism of the model, the Big 12 picture is suddenly crowded with playoff contenders. According to FPI, Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Houston all have at least a 29% chance to reach the playoff. The league, as the article notes, has never had a better chance to send multiple teams into the field.
Arizona is another team to watch. The Wildcats’ only loss came on the road at BYU, and they still have November matchups with Utah and Texas Tech. If they win those, they could push themselves into the Big 12 title race.
In Other News...
Rece Davis Turns BYU Win Into Bigger Officiating Fight
The fallout from BYUs win over Notre Dame kept moving well after the final whistle, with ESPNs Rece Davis taking aim at the officiating mistake that ended the game with the Irish out of time for one last snap. The Big 12 later acknowledged the error, saying one second should have remained on the clock and promising a review of the replay officiating process, which only added to the sense that the finish was about more than just one result.
Davis also tied the episode into a broader conversation that has been simmering around the College Football Playoff expansion debate, using the clock mishap as another example of why the sport keeps getting pulled into bigger questions about fairness and control. For BYU, the win stands, but the way it ended has ensured the discussion will linger well beyond one Saturday night. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Just Got The Statement Win Fans Dreamed About
Bear Bachmeier gave BYU the kind of all-around performance that can change the way a season feels, helping the Cougars outlast Notre Dame in a 28-24 win that should resonate well beyond one Saturday. The sophomore quarterback was effective as a passer and a runner, and the offense found another steady presence in tight end Walker Lyons, who kept showing up as a reliable target when the game tightened up.
The result pushed BYU all the way to No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25, a sign of how much national respect the Cougars earned with the victory. For a team trying to prove it belongs in the top tier, the bigger question now is how this performance carries over, because statement wins only matter if they become part of a pattern. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Just Turned The Big 12 Race Into Something Much Bigger
A wild Saturday across college football sent the AP poll into a spin, and BYU found itself at the center of it. Five of the top seven teams lost on the same day for the first time in the history of the poll, a shakeup driven by results all over the country as Miami moved to No. 1 after a double-overtime win against Florida State and the Cougars climbed to No. 2 after upsetting Notre Dame.
The bigger picture for BYU is how much larger its season has suddenly become. What had been a strong run inside the Big 12 now comes with national relevance, especially after a slate that also saw Ohio State beat Indiana, Tennessee knock off Alabama, Florida upset Texas and Auburn topple Georgia. The rankings changed fast, and with them the spotlight on a BYU team that has turned a conference race into something far more consequential. [Read more 🡒]