BYU’s stumble against UCF did not knock the Cougars out of the Big 12 race. In fact, the path is still sitting right in front of them.
The Cougars fell to 6-1 overall and 3-1 in conference play after the loss, but they remain in the driver’s seat when it comes to the Big 12 championship picture. With November closing in, the race is crowded at the top, yet BYU still controls what happens next.
There are five teams in the Big 12 with one loss or fewer: Utah, BYU, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. That group is about to start beating on itself, and that matters for the Cougars.
Every team in that top five will play at least one of the others before the month is done. Utah, Arizona, and Texas Tech each have two games left against teams from that group, while BYU and Oklahoma State each have just one.
BYU’s lone matchup with that pack comes against Utah. Oklahoma State’s is against Texas Tech.
That setup is why the Cougars’ road remains clear despite the setback. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have to sort each other out, and Arizona also faces Texas Tech, so at least one and possibly two teams from that group are going to take a second loss.
If Texas Tech comes away 2-0 or even 1-1 in those games, that would trim the field to three teams with one loss or less: Utah, BYU, and either Texas Tech or whichever team beats the Red Raiders. From there, if BYU wins out - including the game against Utah - the Cougars would be locked into the Big 12 title game at 11-1. The head-to-head win over Utah would seal it.
There is one route that gets a little more crowded. If Texas Tech loses both games against Arizona and Oklahoma State, the standings could briefly show four teams with one loss or fewer. But that would not stay messy for long, because Arizona and Utah still have to play each other.
In that version of the race, only three teams could finish with one loss or less: BYU, Oklahoma State, and the winner of Arizona-Utah. Even then, BYU would still be in the Big 12 championship game no matter what because of its head-to-head wins over both Arizona and Utah.
And if Oklahoma State wins the three-team tiebreaker and takes one of the title-game spots, BYU would still own the head-to-head edge for the second spot thanks to those wins over Utah and Arizona.
That is the bottom line: despite the loss to UCF, BYU still controls its own destiny in the Big 12 title race. Win out, and the Cougars are headed to the conference championship game. Win out, and they are also headed to the College Football Playoff.
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Millogo is expected to visit USC next, and the recruiting race could move quickly from there. With offers piling up and the early signing period looming as a possible decision window, BYU will have to make the most of every impression it can while the towering center sorts through a crowded list of contenders. [Read more 🡒]