Three weeks into the Big 12 season, BYU is still sitting right where the preseason buzz said it could be: in the thick of the race.
The latest ESPN FPI numbers paint the conference as a three-team battle, with BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech separated by only a sliver. Utah sits first at 16.5 after its shutout win over Utah State, Texas Tech is right behind at 15.8, and BYU checks in at 15.2.
No other Big 12 team is even close, with the next-best rating sitting at 11.2. FPI gives those three teams a combined 73% chance to win the league.
That’s a shift from where things stood before the season, when Texas Tech was the clear FPI favorite in the conference. Three weeks in, the Red Raiders have been knocked back a bit after narrow wins over Houston and Oregon State.
Last season, Texas Tech was rolling through the league. That hasn’t been the case in 2026.
BYU’s path is still very much alive, though the schedule ahead isn’t exactly friendly. Among the top three contenders, the Cougars have the toughest remaining slate, while Texas Tech has the most favorable one.
Kansas State also remains in the mix. The Wildcats are unbeaten, and FPI likes their setup because they avoid Utah, BYU, and Texas Tech in conference play. With one of the easier schedules in the league, they have a real shot to sneak into the championship picture.
On the field, BYU’s offense has been the stronger side of the ball. The Cougars rank sixth nationally in offensive efficiency, which is the best mark in the Big 12. Only Georgia, Miami, Mississippi State, Louisville, and Florida have been more efficient on offense once competition is adjusted for.
The defense tells a different story. BYU is 44th nationally in defensive efficiency, good for ninth in the conference.
It has had stretches where it has looked dominant and others where it has been inconsistent. If the Cougars are going to make a run at the Big 12 title, that side of the ball has to settle in.
FPI also sees BYU as a serious College Football Playoff contender, giving the Cougars about a one-in-three shot to make the field. Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU are the only Big 12 teams with better than a 20% chance.
As for the regular season, FPI projects BYU at 9.1-2.9, with the Cougars favored in seven of their final nine games. A 9-3 finish is still the most likely outcome, but if BYU wants to hit its goals, it will probably need to get to 10 regular-season wins at minimum. FPI gives the Cougars a 39.9% chance to do that.
The full win probabilities back up that picture: 6 wins or more - 99.7%
7 wins or more - 97.8% 8 wins or more - 90.1%
9 wins or more - 70.3% 10 wins or more - 39.9%
11 wins or more - 13.3% 12 wins (undefeated) - 1.8%
In Other News...
BYU Fans Just Got A Break For A Rare TCU Game Day
BYUs matchup with TCU on Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026, comes with an unusually fan-friendly twist for Cougar followers who also keep tabs on the church calendar. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. MDT, with the game slated for ESPN or ESPN2 and radio coverage on KSL NewsRadio, giving fans plenty of ways to follow along.
The timing lands on the Saturday of the Semiannual General Conference for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and this year the schedule lines up in a way that avoids the usual conflict. With no Saturday evening session anymore, BYU supporters wont have to choose between conference and the game, a small but welcome break for a program whose fan base often has to juggle both. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Tech Suddenly Has Company In A Big 12 Rankings Fight
BYUs rise to No. 9 after beating Colorado State was part of a strong early-season showing for the Big 12, which now has four teams in the latest AP Top 25. Texas Tech, Utah and Houston stayed in the rankings as well, giving the league three teams in the Top 15 and another at No. 25 heading out of Week 3. For a conference trying to build depth at the top, that kind of spread matters as much as any one headline result.
West Virginia is the team adding a little more pressure to the mix after upsetting No. 25 Virginia and drawing significant votes of its own. The Mountaineers are still just short of the rankings, but they are close enough to make the conference picture even tighter. For BYU, its a reminder that the margin for staying among the Big 12s elite may be about to get a lot thinner. [Read more 🡒]
AJ Dybantsa Is Still Showing BYU Fans What Matters Most
AJ Dybantsa is already settling into life as a Washington Wizards rookie, but he is also making it clear that his time at BYU still matters. The former Cougars standout has started taking online classes to work toward finishing his degree in a timeline of about three to three-and-a-half years, all while juggling the demands of a pro basketball schedule and keeping up a strong academic record.
For BYU fans, it is another reminder that Dybantsas story is about more than where he was drafted or where he will make his NBA debut on Oct. 21. Being taken No. 1 overall by Washington put him on one of basketballs biggest stages, but he is still doing the quieter work that reflects what he values most, and that part of his journey may end up meaning just as much back in Provo. [Read more 🡒]