No. 15 BYU is headed to Colorado State with momentum intact and ESPN’s FPI is not blinking.
After the Cougars pulled away from Arizona in the second half to move to 2-0, the model gave BYU a 90.9% chance to beat the Rams on the road. That sets up a first meeting between BYU and Colorado State since 2010, which was BYU’s final season in the Mountain West. The Rams are also 2-0 after beating Southern Utah.
The Arizona win nudged BYU’s projected regular-season record upward, from 8.8-3.2 to 9.1-2.9. Even so, the Cougars are no longer projected to run the table in conference play. Utah’s blowout of Arkansas on Saturday night pushed the Utes up in the FPI rankings and changed the picture for BYU, with FPI now giving the Cougars a 45% chance to win that game, down from 59% in the preseason.
There’s still a strong path to another big year in Provo. Based on FPI’s win probabilities, BYU has a 38.5% chance to finish with 10 or more regular-season wins. The most likely finish remains 9-3.
Here’s how FPI breaks it down: 6 wins or more - 99.6%
7 wins or more - 97.2% 8 wins or more - 88.7%
9 wins or more - 68.4% 10 wins or more - 38.5%
11 wins or more - 12.8% 12 wins (undefeated) - 1.7%
BYU also climbed one spot in the FPI power rankings after the Arizona win, moving from No. 19 to No. 18 and passing South Carolina. FPI had BYU favored by 10 points, and the Cougars won by 11, so the model mostly got what it expected. The article even notes that BYU might have earned a bigger boost if it had scored a late touchdown instead of taking a knee.
The bigger shakeup at the top of the Big 12 came from Texas Tech’s close call. The Red Raiders, the league’s highest-rated team, slipped from No. 12 to No. 16 after needing a fourth-quarter comeback to get past Oregon State. They’ve fallen from 10th to 16th over the last two weeks, a sign that the models were expecting a lot more from them than they’ve shown so far.
That matters for BYU’s conference title outlook. The Cougars got a boost from their own win and from Texas Tech’s stumble, which helped shift the Big 12 race.
Tech entered the season with more than a 40% chance to win the league, but FPI now has that number at 24.6%. Utah’s title odds have also improved significantly after two weeks.
The Red Raiders are now narrow favorites to win the league rather than the heavy preseason favorites they once were.
BYU’s College Football Playoff odds improved too, and the reason is the same: better odds to win the Big 12. With the winner of the league getting an automatic spot in the 12-team playoff, that race carries real weight. Texas Tech’s playoff chances have dropped from 57.4% to 35.5% over the first two weeks.
In Other News...
BYU Showed Something Different In The Second Half At Arizona
Down at halftime in Tucson, No. 15 BYU came out of the break looking like a different team and finished with a 28-17 win over Arizona. The Cougars leaned on a strong rushing drive to open the second half, got meaningful production from players such as Kyler Kasper and Tausili Akana, and began to tilt the game with a steadier, more physical approach after the intermission.
Arizona still had a chance to flip the pressure back onto BYU before the Cougars defense shut the door with a key fourth-down stop. From there, BYUs pass rush started to squeeze the Wildcats late, and the Cougars spent the final stretch controlling the flow instead of chasing it, a meaningful shift for a team that had to answer a few questions after the break. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Keeps Winning Big Games Even When The Start Looks Familiar
For a while, it looked a lot like one of those nights when BYU would have to grind through familiar frustration before finding its footing. The Cougars still came away with a Big 12 win over Arizona, and the familiar part of the story was how much the game changed after halftime. Kelly Poppingas defense settled in and Aaron Rodericks offense found better answers after a slow start, giving BYU the kind of second-half control that has started to define these bigger nights.
Tommy Prassas also ended up in the middle of the decisive sequence late, when a key fourth-quarter tackle helped seal the result. It was another reminder that BYU keeps finding a way in these matchups, even when the opening stretch suggests the game might go another direction. The win was Kalani Sitakes sixth straight over Arizona, which says plenty about how often the Cougars have been the team making the right adjustments when these teams meet. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Arizona Win Put A Promising New Core On Display
BYUs win over Arizona offered a useful snapshot of how the Cougars are starting to piece together a new-look core on both sides of the ball. The second-half surge was powered by a defense that kept tightening the screws, with Tausili Akana making his presence felt, Uluave and Cannon DeVries adding key support, and the offense finding enough balance to pull away. It was the kind of performance that suggests the roster is settling into a clearer identity early in the season.
The more interesting part for BYU is how many different names are starting to matter in meaningful spots. Isaiah Glasker emerged as a steady target in the passing game, and Kyler Kaspers scoring impact showed how quickly the receiving group can tilt a game when it gets rolling. Akanas production up front only adds to the sense that this team may have more emerging pieces than expected, which makes the next stretch of games worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]