BYU’s win over Arizona gave the Cougars something more than a clean result on the field: it gave them a fresh set of numbers to argue over. And after the dust settled from Saturday afternoon, the big takeaway was simple enough - the 11-point victory was good enough for the humans, even if the computers still have some reservations.
The AP voters didn’t punish BYU for the late-game style-point debate. The Cougars moved up four places to No. 11, jumping over Texas Tech and USC despite both of those teams winning on Saturday.
That makes BYU the highest-ranked team in the Big 12 and the highest-ranked team west of Texas. It’s also BYU’s best ranking this early in a season since it was No. 7 in 2009.
The predictive models tell a different story, though not an alarming one. In SP+, BYU is projected to be 15.4 points better than the average FBS team, while No.
10 Tennessee checks in at 17.9 points better than average. That gap means the difference between BYU at No. 18 in that framework and Tennessee at No. 10 is less than a field goal on a neutral field.
The point, as these ratings see it, is that BYU still needs to keep beating expectations if it wants to climb.
That’s where style points come in. BYU’s ratings are lagging a bit behind the public perception, and the path upward is pretty clear: outperform the spread.
The article points to Colorado State as an example, noting that BYU is favored by around 20 points in SP+. If the Cougars want to keep moving up, they need to win by more than that kind of number - and ideally by a lot.
The bigger issue for BYU’s long-term perception is the brand attached to the program. Power ratings can act like an eye test with built-in bias, and in college football, hypothetical spreads often drive how people talk about playoff contenders.
That has hurt BYU before, especially last season, when Texas Tech and Utah earned the benefit of the doubt in the CFP rankings by beating teams soundly. For BYU to change that reputation, it has to keep winning in a way that makes the metrics sit up and pay attention.
Interestingly, the models are still more skeptical about BYU’s defense than its offense. The offense sits 18th in SP+, 10th in FPI, and 16th in FEI.
The defense, meanwhile, comes in at 21st in SP+, 48th in FPI, and 30th in FEI. If the second half against Arizona is any guide, BYU may be better than a top-30 defense.
A strong showing against a solid Colorado State offense would help that case.
The resume numbers are less settled, and that’s mostly because it’s still early. Still, the Arizona win looks solid on paper because it came against a team that sits in that top-30 to top-40 range. Arizona may rise in the coming weeks, which would only make that victory look better.
So did the decision to take a knee inside the 5 hurt BYU in the public eye? Not this time.
The 11-point margin was enough to push the Cougars past Texas Tech and USC, and the voting public clearly gave them credit. A 35-17 finish might have played better in some corners, but none of that will matter much if BYU gets “bludgeoned by Notre Dame.”
For now, the conclusion is straightforward: the Arizona win was strong enough to keep BYU in the playoff conversation if the season ended today. The real test is still ahead, and the rest will be sorted out in October and November if BYU keeps doing what it did Saturday - control games, win by enough, and let the rankings catch up.
In Other News...
BYUs 2-0 Start Has A Breakout Star Fans Didnt See Coming
BYUs 2-0 start has come with an unexpected name popping up everywhere on the stat sheet. Cannon DeVries, the sophomore defensive back, has quickly become one of the Cougars most valuable players, leading the team in tackles while also giving the special teams unit a spark with his work as a kick and punt returner. His impact has stretched across both sides of the ball, and the coaching staff has leaned into his versatility at the nickel position.
The early-season resume already includes a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the opener, the kind of play that can change momentum for a young team in a hurry. Just as important for BYU, DeVries has looked steady enough in the defensive backfield to keep earning snaps, and teammates have taken notice of how naturally he has fit into a larger role. The bigger question now is how far that emergence can carry him as the schedule toughens and opponents start treating him like a player they have to plan around. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas States Fast Start Faces Its First Real Test Under Collin Klein
BYUs first Big 12 win came in convincing fashion, with Bear Bachmeier throwing for 217 yards and three touchdowns in a 28-17 victory over Arizona. It was the kind of league-opening result that can change the tone around a program quickly, especially with Oklahoma State already notching a defensive win against Oregon and Utah rolling past Idaho and Arkansas. For the Cougars, the early conference picture already has some shape to it, and the results around the league are starting to matter.
Kansas State has also opened strong under Collin Klein, putting together two wins as it heads into a matchup with Tulane. The Wildcats have looked steady in the early going, but this next game is the first real chance to see how that start holds up against a different kind of test. For BYU, it is another reminder that the Big 12 race will be full of moving parts, and that the teams getting off to clean starts are the ones worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Tight End Duo Is Becoming A Real Problem For Defenses
BYUs offense has found something useful early in the season in a tight end room that looks deeper and more dangerous than it has in years. USC transfer Walker Lyons and Oregon transfer Roger Saleapaga II have both flashed as pass catchers and as blockers, giving the Cougars a pair of versatile options who can stay on the field in a variety of looks. Coaches have already pointed to this group as the best tight end unit BYU has had since 2018, and it has the feel of a position that can quietly shape how the offense functions week to week.
What makes the setup even more interesting is that Lyons and Saleapaga are not being treated like an either-or proposition. BYU expects them to play significant roles together, with additional depth behind them helping keep the position fresh and flexible. For a team looking for reliable mismatch options and more physicality at the point of attack, that kind of two-headed threat can be a real headache for defenses trying to sort out who is blocking, who is releasing and where the ball might go next. [Read more 🡒]