Notre Dame’s playoff path has narrowed to a single lane, and CJ Carr is the one driving it.
After Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings put the Fighting Irish at No. 11, the margin for error disappeared. Notre Dame is sitting on the bubble with one loss to No.
9 BYU and no real resume-building wins to lean on. A year after finishing as the first team out, the Irish are back in the same uncomfortable spot: close enough to dream, not safe enough to relax.
That’s what makes Saturday’s trip to face No. 1 Miami so much more than a marquee matchup. It’s a must-win game for Notre Dame, and for Carr, it feels like the biggest stage of his career.
On paper, Carr has been one of the steadiest quarterbacks in the country. He’s completing 67% of his passes, owns an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and carries an 82.7 QBR, eighth-best in college football when adjusted for competition. But the one time Notre Dame stepped into a true high-end matchup, Carr didn’t look like the same quarterback.
Against BYU, he completed just 55% of his throws, going 27-for-49 for the lowest completion percentage of his career on the most attempts he’s ever had. In the second and third quarters, he hit only 7 of 17 passes, and that slump helped the Cougars build a double-digit lead in Provo.
That wasn’t just a bad night in a vacuum. BYU has been one of the nation’s toughest pass defenses, allowing only 5.5 yards per attempt, second-best in college football. For Notre Dame, it raised a bigger concern about its most visible quarterback in years.
The split between Carr’s numbers against ranked teams and unranked teams is hard to ignore. In five games against ranked opponents, he’s completed 60.9% of his passes for 224.6 yards per game, 6.6 yards per attempt, six touchdowns and five interceptions. Against unranked teams, those numbers jump to 69.4% completion, 231.1 yards per game, 10.0 yards per attempt, 36 touchdowns and just two picks.
The difference in workload matters too. Against unranked opponents, Carr averages 23.1 attempts per game, with Notre Dame often able to lean on the run and separate early. Against ranked teams, that number climbs to 33 attempts per game, and the efficiency drops sharply.
The BYU game also exposed more than just Carr. He completed only 30% of his passes on throws more than 10 yards downfield, and Bear Bachmeier outplayed him in every way that mattered. Notre Dame’s receivers had trouble finding room against BYU’s standout defensive backs, leaving the offense stuck in a bad stretch it couldn’t escape.
Now the challenge changes again. Miami is the best team Carr has faced by the rankings, and the Hurricanes are loaded on offense while ranking No. 1 in the nation against the run. But through the air, they’ve been vulnerable.
Miami sits No. 122 nationally in passing defense, giving up 251.9 yards per game. The Hurricanes’ pass rush has backed up from last season, and a young secondary has been exposed.
The numbers are noisy because teams are forced to throw so often against a defense that shuts down the run, but even on a per-play basis, the issues are there. Miami is allowing 7.1 yards per attempt, right in the middle of the pack.
The recent results have been rough. North Carolina’s Billy Edwards Jr. completed 82% of his passes for 341 yards, four touchdowns and 10.0 yards per attempt last week, all season highs.
Florida State put up 298 passing yards and four touchdowns in a double-overtime loss. Pittsburgh quarterbacks Holden Geriner and Corey Dailey combined for 334 yards and two touchdowns.
That makes this a very different kind of test for Carr. Statistically, it’s one of the weakest pass defenses he’s seen. But with Miami’s run defense taking away the easy path, the game may fall on his arm more than any other he’s played.
Carr is ranked No. 10 overall in the CBS Sports NFL Draft Prospect Rankings, and he has a chance to become Notre Dame’s first first-round quarterback since Brady Quinn in 2007 and its first top-10 pick at the position since Rick Mirer in 1993.
Still, the bigger question is whether he can deliver when the stage gets heavy. He was 0-2 against the two College Football Playoff teams he faced last season and 0-1 against projected CFP participant BYU. Notre Dame reached the title game two years ago with a less talented roster and won three CFP games to get there.
This is the moment that asks for more. Notre Dame needs Carr to lift the offense, and his NFL future could be shaped by how he answers.
In Other News...
Bear Bachmeier Just Became Utahs Biggest BYU Concern
Bear Bachmeier has quickly become a central part of BYUs offense, and Utahs staff knows it. First-year Utes coach Morgan Scalley offered a pointed assessment of the Cougars quarterback after seeing how much he has grown, especially in the way BYU has leaned on him with running back LJ Martin out. For a team that has found recent success with Bachmeier steering the attack, his rise has changed the way opponents have to prepare.
Utahs defense is now treating him like the biggest problem on the board in the rivalry matchup. The Utes have had some success pressuring opposing quarterbacks, but Bachmeiers development has made him a tougher read than he was earlier in the season. For BYU, that only adds to the stakes, because the offense has become increasingly tied to how well he handles the moment when Utah comes after him. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Has One Real Opening In This Rivalry Upset Bid
BYU heads into the Utah game with the kind of rivalry backdrop that always sharpens the edges of a matchup, and this one comes with plenty of familiar tension. The Cougars are being sized up against a Utes team that has owned the series for stretches, while the broader college football slate around them only underscores how much these November games hinge on health, form and who can handle the moment best.
For BYU, the appeal of an upset bid is tied to finding the one opening that really matters in a game like this. The preview around the matchup points to the usual rivalry variables, from injuries to matchup quirks to the way recent history can shape expectations, and it places the Cougars in the same conversation as other high-stakes games like Missouri-Texas, LSU-Alabama and Tennessee-Kentucky. The question is whether BYU can turn that opening into something bigger before the rivalry pressure closes it back up. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs CFP Position Just Made The Utah Game Even Bigger
BYUs first College Football Playoff ranking came in a little lower than many around the program expected, with the Cougars landing at No. 9 despite the marquee win over Notre Dame. The committees first look made clear that the Irish victory still matters, but not nearly as much as it might have if Notre Dame had held a stronger place in the rankings, and the overall message was that the committee is weighing quality wins heavily.
For BYU, that puts even more pressure on what comes next, starting with the Utah game. The Cougars also have a Notre Dame-Miami matchup to watch closely, since movement there could affect how the Irish win ages in the committees eyes, but the bigger point is simple: BYU cannot afford to let the resume sit still, especially with the UCF loss still hanging over the evaluation. [Read more 🡒]