Nick Saban didn’t dress it up Saturday morning: BYU is in a spot where the margin for error is gone.
The former Alabama coach, now an ESPN analyst, called the Cougars’ trip to No. 3 Utah a “must-win” on College GameDay, and the numbers back up the urgency.
No. 9 BYU enters the Holy War with its Big 12 title chase and College Football Playoff position hanging in the balance, still trying to recover from the double-overtime loss at UCF that snapped its unbeaten start.
“Well, I think this is a must-win for BYU, and I think it’s going to be really critical to get off to a really good start in this game,” Saban said.
Utah is 8-0 overall and 5-0 in Big 12 play, while BYU sits at 7-1 and 4-1. If the Utes win, they’ll move two games clear of the Cougars in the conference race and own the head-to-head tiebreaker too.
The stakes got even sharper when the first College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday. BYU landed at No. 9, two spots behind its AP Poll ranking, and Notre Dame - the Cougars’ best win - checked in at No. 11.
That win over the Fighting Irish now feels like a long time ago. Since then, BYU hasn’t looked like a top-10 team. UCF rolled up 463 yards in Orlando, and Kalani Sitake took the blame after the loss.
“These mistakes shouldn’t be happening midseason,” Sitake said. “That’s on me.”
The Cougars bounced back with a 27-20 win over Arizona State, but the offense barely got rolling, finishing with 47 rushing yards on 29 carries.
Utah, meanwhile, has been ruthless early in games. Saban zeroed in on the first quarter, where the Utes have buried opponents.
“Utah has outscored their opponents 89-6 in the first quarter,” Saban said. “So on the road, you really don’t want to get in there and get behind, let the crowd get into it.”
That 83-point edge is the best in the country, and no team in college football has allowed fewer first-quarter points. Utah scored touchdowns on its opening drive in each of its first six games, then jumped Cincinnati 42-6 by halftime before finishing off a 49-25 win last week.
The Utes have won 14 straight, the longest active streak in the nation, and are 8-0 for the first time since 2010 in Morgan Scalley’s first season as Utah coach. Devon Dampier has been a big part of that run, going 18-2 as the starter, while the Utah offense ranks eighth nationally in success rate, a measure of how often an offense stays ahead of the chains.
Even with all that, Scalley wasn’t interested in inflating the rivalry beyond what it is.
“This is a big one. It’s not the big one,” Scalley said.
BYU hasn’t beaten Utah since a 30-12 win in Provo in 2019, and the Cougars dropped last year’s meeting 24-21, extending the Utes’ series streak to three games.
The Cougars are also dealing with injury concerns. LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, has missed four games since suffering a lower-body injury against TCU on Oct.
- He still leads BYU with 344 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per carry.
Martin was listed as doubtful on Wednesday’s availability report, but ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported Saturday that he’ll play. Thamel also reported earlier in the week that Martin wouldn’t be at full strength if he returned, which means quarterback Bear Bachmeier may still have to shoulder most of the offense.
BYU’s defense has issues of its own to solve after allowing 10 explosive plays at UCF, and it will be without defensive end Vincent Tautua and cornerback Jonathan Kabeya against Dampier and the Utes.
Sitake said he’s leaning into the pressure rather than running from it.
“I know there’s a high sense of urgency. That’s what I love about this game,” Sitake said.
BYU and Utah kick off at noon ET Saturday on ABC at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
In Other News...
Bear Bachmeiers Collapse Turned BYUs Best Chance Against Utah
Bear Bachmeier gave BYU just enough early spark to make the rivalry feel manageable, and for a while the Cougars had the kind of offensive rhythm that can change a game in a hurry. His 75-yard touchdown pass helped set the tone in a first half that suggested BYU might have found the right answers against Utah, even as the matchup tightened into the kind of physical, possession-by-possession fight these games usually become.
Then the second half turned into a different story, and the turnovers piled up at the worst possible time. Bachmeier finished with four interceptions, and each one chipped away at BYUs chances to build on its early momentum or recover once Utahs defense started dictating the pace. In a 28-20 loss, the Cougars were left to wonder how different the night might have looked if their quarterbacks best stretch had lasted a little longer. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Big 12 Path Just Got A Lot Tougher After Utah Loss
The loss in Salt Lake City did more than sting in the moment. It tightened the road ahead for BYU in the Big 12 race, with Utahs 28-20 win leaving the Cougars at 7-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play, a mark that now puts a premium on every remaining league game. For a team that had been trying to stay in the thick of the title picture, the margin for error is suddenly a lot thinner.
Utah, meanwhile, kept rolling and is now sitting at 9-0 overall and 6-0 in conference play, which is why the Utes have suddenly become such a heavy favorite in the league chase. ESPNs projections reflect that shift, giving Utah a 93% chance to reach the Big 12 Championship Game and a 90% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a reminder of how quickly one rivalry result can reshape the path for both teams. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Let A Rivalry Statement Slip Away In The Worst Way
For much of the night, BYU had the kind of rivalry win that can linger for years within reach. The Cougars carried a halftime lead into the break, and the game had the feel of one of those tense, physical meetings with Utah where every possession starts to matter a little more than the last.
Instead, the second half turned sharply in Utahs favor as the Utes rallied for a 28-20 win and left BYU to sort through a game that slipped away in painful fashion. Devon Dampier helped drive the comeback with both a passing and rushing touchdown, while Trey Reynolds sealed it with a goal-line interception, and Bachmeiers four interceptions loomed over every missed chance the Cougars had to put the game away. [Read more 🡒]