No. 10 BYU heads to Fort Worth on Saturday as the favorite, even though TCU has had the upper hand there for years. The Cougars haven’t beaten the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth since 2006, but this meeting comes after BYU handled TCU a season ago and arrives with the Horned Frogs sitting at 2-2, including an 0-2 mark against Power Four teams.
The models are lining up behind BYU, too. Bill Connelly’s SP+ gives the Cougars a 64% chance to win and projects a 28-22 finish.
That matches the betting line, with BYU favored by 6.5 points. SP+ has BYU ranked 17th overall, with the Cougars sitting 25th in offensive efficiency, 21st in defensive efficiency and 27th in special teams.
TCU lands much lower in that same model at 42nd. The Horned Frogs are 58th on offense, 28th on defense and 93rd in special teams.
The other projection systems are even more bullish on BYU. FPI gives the Cougars a 70.5% chance to win.
Parker Fleming’s model from CFB Graphs has BYU at 69% with a 28-21 expected score. BCFTOYS, which uses FEI ratings, is the most confident of the bunch, putting BYU at 72.4% to win and projecting a 29-20 result.
BCFTOYS has BYU ranked 14th nationally, powered by an offense that checks in 15th in offensive efficiency. The Cougars are 25th in defensive efficiency and 45th in special teams efficiency. TCU sits 50th overall in that system, with rankings of 72nd on offense, 36th on defense and 36th on special teams.
The key matchup is BYU’s offense against TCU’s defense. The Horned Frogs have been strong in scoring defense, ranking in the top 15, but they’ve still allowed teams to move the ball.
BYU is first nationally in success rate on offense, while TCU is 55th in success rate allowed, which suggests the Cougars should be able to move the chains. The real separator, as the numbers point out, is whether either side can turn those drives into touchdowns.
That has been a problem for TCU on offense. The Horned Frogs rank 124th in points scored per Eckel drive, which is defined here as a drive that reaches field goal range.
In Other News...
BYU Just Got Pulled Into A Big 12 Playoff Fight
College footballs playoff debate is suddenly pulling BYU into a much bigger conversation than just its own path to the postseason. With leaders weighing a jump from a 12-team format to 24 teams, the ripple effects would stretch well beyond Selection Sunday, altering how the sport approaches the postseason and cutting further into the bowl system that has long defined December and January.
The Big 12 is among the leagues pushing for the change, which would obviously matter in Provo because it could open the door for more conference teams to stay alive longer. But the push is drawing resistance from those who see bigger costs, less urgency in the regular season and more strain on the sports finances, and analyst Josh Pate has been especially blunt about the risks. For BYU, it is the kind of playoff fight that could reshape its future opportunities even before a single team is officially added. [Read more 🡒]
Undefeated BYU Walks Into A TCU Team Desperate To Respond
TCUs Big 12 home opener comes with plenty on the line, and the setting hardly offers a cushion. The Horned Frogs welcome undefeated BYU to Amon G. Carter Stadium on Oct. 3, with the matchup landing at a time when TCU is trying to steady itself after a rough stretch and sort through its player availability concerns.
BYU brings more than an unbeaten record into Fort Worth, and quarterback Bear Bachmeier is at the center of the challenge for TCUs defense. Add in the usual first-weekend-in-October variables, from game-day details to the weather forecast and the history around the series, and this feels like the kind of test that can quickly define where both teams are headed in league play. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Heads Into TCU With One Strength About To Be Tested
Through four weeks of the 2026 college football season, one of the clearest dividing lines in the Big 12 has been what teams do on third down. Houston and Kansas State have set the pace in conversion rate, while TCU enters conference play with a defense that has been especially tough in getting off the field, allowing opponents to convert only 24.5% of the time. For BYU, that makes the upcoming trip a good early test of a trait that often decides whether drives stay alive or die short of the sticks.
TCUs offense, meanwhile, has had a tougher time sustaining those same situations, converting at a 43.4% clip, which adds another layer to the matchup. As the Big 12 slate settles in, the Cougars are about to find out whether their efficiency can hold up against a defense built to disrupt it, with red-zone execution another area worth watching once the field shortens and every possession carries more weight. [Read more 🡒]