No. 11 BYU heads to Fort Collins on Saturday with a statistical edge that shows up in all the right places, even if Colorado State’s offense can flash some real bite.
The Rams have been productive on the surface. They rank 21st nationally in scoring at 46.5 points per game and sit 12th in yards per game. But the deeper numbers tell a different story about how this matchup may tilt, especially once BYU gets the ball.
Start with explosiveness. BYU’s first-string offense has been electric, ranking 23rd nationally in explosive play rate.
Bear Bachmeier has been the engine, too, checking in 10th nationally in explosive play rate among FBS quarterbacks. Colorado State, by contrast, has had a hard time keeping opponents from landing big shots.
The Rams rank 131st in explosive plays allowed and 135th in explosive run plays allowed. That’s a bad combination against a BYU rushing attack that, by the numbers, will be the best Colorado State has seen this season.
There’s more separation in the efficiency data. BYU ranks 25th nationally in yards per play, while Colorado State sits 122nd in yards per play allowed.
The Rams have leaned on turnovers to cover some of those gaps, and they’ve been excellent in that area, ranking first nationally in takeaways. But BYU has protected the ball all season and has no giveaways.
If Colorado State can’t end drives by forcing mistakes, the Cougars should have room to move the football.
That matters even more if the weather turns sloppy in Fort Collins. The better rushing team usually controls those kinds of games, and on paper that team is BYU.
Colorado State’s offense also comes with a little volatility. Through two games, the Rams rank 17th in yards per play and 22nd in points per drive, but they’ve been boom or bust.
Their 3-and-out rate is 79th nationally, and on 23% of drives they’ve failed to pick up a first down. BYU has shown it can create those empty possessions, forcing a three-and-out on 50% of its non-garbage-time drives, which ranks ninth in college football.
There is one important note there: BYU’s three-and-out rate is helped by its dominant showing against Utah Tech. Against Arizona, the Cougars had a tougher time getting stops and forced only two three-and-outs. Even so, Colorado State has shown stretches where it simply can’t stay on the field, and those are the moments when BYU can start to stretch a lead.
The Rams can still be dangerous when everything clicks. They rank fifth in a metric called No-third-down TD rate, which tracks touchdown drives that never even reach third down.
Colorado State has avoided third downs altogether on 32% of its touchdown drives this season. When the Rams get rolling, they can score before the defense has a chance to settle in.
BYU has one area it needs to sharpen, too: staying on the field on offense. The Cougars rank 83rd in three-and-out rate, and even against Utah Tech they had a few empty possessions.
But the underlying matchup points in their favor. BYU ranks ninth in offensive success rate, while Colorado State ranks 92nd in success rate allowed.
In plain terms, BYU is much better at staying ahead of the chains, and the Rams have struggled to keep offenses behind them.
That lines up with the best matchup for BYU on offense: the run game. The Cougars rank 11th in stuff rate allowed, while Colorado State ranks 124th in stuff rate on defense. The data points in the same direction throughout this game - BYU should have the better rushing attack, and Colorado State is likely to have a hard time slowing it down.
In Other News...
BYUs 2-0 Start Has A Breakout Star Fans Didnt See Coming
BYUs 2-0 start has come with an unexpected name popping up everywhere on the stat sheet. Cannon DeVries, the sophomore defensive back, has quickly become one of the Cougars most valuable players, leading the team in tackles while also giving the special teams unit a spark with his work as a kick and punt returner. His impact has stretched across both sides of the ball, and the coaching staff has leaned into his versatility at the nickel position.
The early-season resume already includes a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the opener, the kind of play that can change momentum for a young team in a hurry. Just as important for BYU, DeVries has looked steady enough in the defensive backfield to keep earning snaps, and teammates have taken notice of how naturally he has fit into a larger role. The bigger question now is how far that emergence can carry him as the schedule toughens and opponents start treating him like a player they have to plan around. [Read more 🡒]
Kansas States Fast Start Faces Its First Real Test Under Collin Klein
BYUs first Big 12 win came in convincing fashion, with Bear Bachmeier throwing for 217 yards and three touchdowns in a 28-17 victory over Arizona. It was the kind of league-opening result that can change the tone around a program quickly, especially with Oklahoma State already notching a defensive win against Oregon and Utah rolling past Idaho and Arkansas. For the Cougars, the early conference picture already has some shape to it, and the results around the league are starting to matter.
Kansas State has also opened strong under Collin Klein, putting together two wins as it heads into a matchup with Tulane. The Wildcats have looked steady in the early going, but this next game is the first real chance to see how that start holds up against a different kind of test. For BYU, it is another reminder that the Big 12 race will be full of moving parts, and that the teams getting off to clean starts are the ones worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Tight End Duo Is Becoming A Real Problem For Defenses
BYUs offense has found something useful early in the season in a tight end room that looks deeper and more dangerous than it has in years. USC transfer Walker Lyons and Oregon transfer Roger Saleapaga II have both flashed as pass catchers and as blockers, giving the Cougars a pair of versatile options who can stay on the field in a variety of looks. Coaches have already pointed to this group as the best tight end unit BYU has had since 2018, and it has the feel of a position that can quietly shape how the offense functions week to week.
What makes the setup even more interesting is that Lyons and Saleapaga are not being treated like an either-or proposition. BYU expects them to play significant roles together, with additional depth behind them helping keep the position fresh and flexible. For a team looking for reliable mismatch options and more physicality at the point of attack, that kind of two-headed threat can be a real headache for defenses trying to sort out who is blocking, who is releasing and where the ball might go next. [Read more 🡒]