BYU’s preseason spot in the AP poll says one thing. The computers say something a little colder.
The Cougars landed at No. 14 in the opening AP top 25, tied with USC, which gives them their highest preseason ranking since 1985. That kind of recognition is a big step for a program that has shown up in the preseason poll only four times in the last 30 years. Still, the gap between public perception and the predictive numbers is pretty clear.
There’s a case for BYU being even higher in the human vote. The Cougars are tied for fifth in wins over the last two seasons and sit in the top 20 in returning production in SP+.
But the poll itself is built around tiers, and BYU ends up in a different neighborhood than the teams at the very top. Ohio State and Oregon are 1-2, the SEC has nine ranked teams, and the point spread between No.
8 Texas A&M and No. 14 BYU is 292 voter points.
BYU is also 338 points ahead of No. 17 Washington, which puts the Cougars firmly in the sport’s second tier.
That same split shows up in SP+ too. BYU checks in at No. 21 in the preseason power ratings, and the gaps around them are tighter than the AP numbers suggest.
SP+ has BYU and No. 12 USC separated by a field goal, about the same distance as BYU and No.
25 SMU. In other words, the Cougars are close enough to climb if they get rolling early.
The schedule sets up a season that could look a lot different from the usual BYU grind. SP+ projects only two games all year with a spread of less than a touchdown: at TCU, where BYU is favored by 3, and at Utah, where BYU is favored by 2.6.
Notre Dame is projected to be favored by 9 points in Provo. The Cougars are more than a touchdown favorite in the other nine games.
That kind of profile is unusual for BYU, but it lines up with what the numbers see in the roster. BYU ranks 17th in returning production, and only Houston returns more production among Big 12 teams.
Most of that comes back on defense, where BYU ranks sixth in returning production. Even so, SP+ projects the offense to be a touch better than the defense relative to the rest of the country, with the offense at No. 19 and the defense at No.
The broader picture is simple enough: people are higher on BYU than the computers are. That isn’t hard to explain.
BYU won plenty of close games last season and ranks in the lower half of the Power Four in team talent per 247 Sports. If the Cougars want to keep rising - and especially if they want to reach the playoff in 2026 - they’re going to need more than just wins.
They’ll need the kind of style points that make both voters and models take notice.
The early reactions from voters already point to the same themes. Kalani Sitake, Bear Bachmeier, and LJ Martin are well regarded.
The concerns are centered on the wide receivers and what comes after Jay Hill. If BYU answers those questions quickly, the Oct. 18 matchup with Notre Dame could carry top-10 stakes between undefeated teams.
In Other News...
BYUs Jaxon Kohler Move Comes With One Massive Question
Jaxon Kohlers path to BYU became one of the most notable roster developments of the offseason, giving the Cougars an experienced frontcourt piece with real production behind him. The Michigan State big man has committed to BYU and, thanks to a temporary injunction tied to a California lawsuit involving fifth-year graduated players, is eligible to suit up this coming season. For a program looking to strengthen its interior presence, the move brings immediate credibility and a player who has already logged heavy minutes on a major stage.
Kohler spent four seasons at Michigan State, starting 69 games over his last two years and finishing his senior season at 12.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Those numbers are part of why his arrival is expected to have a significant impact on BYUs roster, but the larger question still hangs over everything: how long that eligibility window remains open and what it means for the Cougars if the legal landscape changes again. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Just Landed A Frontcourt Boost Fans Did Not See Coming
A familiar name from the Utah prep scene is headed back closer to home, and BYUs frontcourt suddenly looks a lot more settled for the long term. The American Fork product spent four seasons at Michigan State before committing to the Cougars for an extra season under the NCAAs new five-in-five eligibility rule, a policy that is still facing legal challenges but would allow him to spread five seasons across five years.
For BYU, the appeal is obvious: an experienced center who should step into the lineup and give the Cougars a proven presence in the middle. The timing matters too, because if the rule survives, he would be available for the 2026-27 season, giving BYU another layer of size and skill at a position that can change the shape of a roster fast. [Read more 🡒]
BYU May Have Finally Solved Its Biggest Roster Problem
BYUs search for a proven center has taken a significant step forward with the commitment of Jaxon Kohler, the former Michigan State big man who will suit up for a fifth college basketball season after receiving an additional year of NCAA eligibility. Kohler spent four seasons in East Lansing and capped that run by earning All-Big Ten Honorable Mention honors last season, giving the Cougars a veteran interior presence at a spot that had loomed as one of the rosters biggest needs.
His arrival gives BYU a much clearer answer in the middle and should help balance a frontcourt that needs both size and spacing. Kohlers game also fits the Cougars desire to improve perimeter shooting from the inside out, but the bigger question now is how quickly he can settle in and how much he changes the ceiling of a roster that was still searching for its starting center. [Read more 🡒]