BYU’s Friday night matchup with Iowa State brings the Cougars back to LaVell Edwards Stadium for the first time since September 12, and the numbers point to a clear advantage for the No. 8 team in the country. After a short week, BYU gets a home game in a stretch where five of its final eight contests will be played in Provo.
The Cyclones have had trouble staying on schedule, and that’s where BYU’s defense can tilt the game. Iowa State is 108th in 3-and-out rate, with 29% of its possessions ending without a first down. The problems get worse on money downs: the Cyclones’ 35% conversion rate on third and fourth downs in non-garbage time ranks 114th nationally.
That lines up well with what Kelly Poppinga’s defense has done all season. BYU ranks 17th in 3-and-outs forced, 12th in available yards gained and 27th in conversion rate allowed.
Iowa State has shown it can be above average when it gets into scoring territory or creates explosive plays, but the Cougars have the edge in the grind of the game. There should be stretches where BYU’s defense gets off the field quickly and hands the ball back to Bear Bachmeier and the offense.
The other big edge shows up inside the 20. BYU has been flawless in the red zone this season, going 13-for-13 on red zone trips in non-garbage time and turning every one of those chances into a touchdown.
That is the best mark in college football. The Cougars have done it with size at receiver, versatility at tight end and a physical rushing attack.
Iowa State has not matched that kind of finish on defense. The Cyclones rank 104th in touchdowns allowed per scoring drive, defined as drives that reach field goal range, and 112th in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Even if BYU’s offense isn’t as efficient without LJ Martin in the lineup, the Cougars should still cash in when they get close.
There’s also the question of how much resistance Iowa State can really bring on that side of the ball. In BYU’s Sunday notebook, the point was made that the Cougars may have already seen two of the four best defenses they’ll face all season.
Arizona ranks 8th nationally in stop rate, TCU ranks 13th, and BYU has already dealt with both. Iowa State sits 59th in stop rate, a tier below those groups.
The biggest unknown for BYU remains Martin’s absence. The offense against TCU without him was rough, though the note from the reporting was that weather may have had more to do with that than anything else. Even so, the Cougars still need to prove they can consistently move the ball without him.
Still, the matchup data leans heavily toward BYU. The Cougars have been one of the best rushing teams in the country, and Iowa State has struggled against the run. Even without Martin, BYU is expected to move the ball and score in the 28-35 point range.
In Other News...
BYU Just Rewarded Key Staffers Behind Its Recent Rise
Kevin Young continued to reshape his staff this week by rewarding two key voices behind BYUs recent climb. Brandon Dunson has been elevated to associate head coach, while Jordan Brady was promoted to assistant coach and will keep his duties as Director of Player Development, a sign the program is leaning into the continuity that has helped fuel its surge in recent seasons.
Both coaches have played important roles in a stretch that has included NCAA Tournament appearances and a steady pipeline of player growth that has reached the NBA Draft. BYU also added seven new graduate assistants, giving Young even more depth around the program as the Cougars look ahead to the 2026-27 opener against Ohio State and the next step in the rise. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Heads Into Iowa State Showdown With Major Injury Concerns
The buildup to BYUs Week 6 trip to Iowa State has been shaped as much by the injury report as by the matchup itself. The Cougars are headed into a game that already carries plenty of Big 12 weight, but they will have to navigate it without running back LJ Martin and linebacker Isaiah Glasker, two key pieces on opposite sides of the ball.
Iowa State has its own holes to manage, with defenders Drew Surges, Caden Crawford and Ka'Mori Moore all sidelined. That leaves both staffs adjusting on the fly, and for BYU the question is how well the next men up can absorb the loss of proven production in a game where every small edge could matter. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Faces A Trickier Iowa State Test Than Fans Might Expect
BYU heads into its meeting with Iowa State with the kind of model support that usually calms a fan base, at least on paper. Most prediction systems like the Cougars, some giving them roughly a seven-in-10 shot to win and others pushing that closer to the mid-80s, with projected scores generally leaning BYUs way. The numbers also point to a team that has stacked up well in the efficiency metrics that tend to matter most once conference play starts to tighten.
Still, this is the sort of matchup that can get slippery faster than expected, especially with Iowa State working through coaching changes and trying to settle itself for the stretch ahead. BYU may have the better profile right now, but that does not make this a routine Saturday, and the gap between favored and comfortable can be smaller than it looks when the game finally kicks off. [Read more 🡒]