BYU’s run from national darling to stunned upset victim happened fast. Eight days ago, the Cougars were living the dream: ESPN’s “College GameDay” in Provo, their first top-10 showdown, a dramatic win over No.
2 Notre Dame, and a climb all the way to No. 2 in the country. Then came UCF, and with it a wild double-overtime loss that knocked BYU off course.
The Cougars still had chances to survive. Bear Bachmeier finished only 50% on his passes, the defense gave up a season-high 463 yards, and BYU was in position to steal the game late.
In the final minute of regulation, UCF faced a fourth-and-goal and chose to go for the touchdown rather than kick a short field goal. BYU stopped it, but UCF still got back into field-goal range before time expired.
Faletau Satuala blocked the kick, chaos followed with a recovered ball and flags on what appeared to be a facemask, and then somehow the sequence ended with no penalties and overtime.
UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw his third touchdown in the second overtime, and BYU could not answer when the final pass was dropped in the end zone. The result was a 39-31 loss.
Now BYU gets a chance to reset at home against Arizona State on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. MT on FOX, with the Holy War waiting next week.
The numbers point to a Cougar rebound. In Pick Six Previews’ Game Grader, BYU checks in at 63.4 for the 2025 season, 19th among 68 Power Four teams, while Arizona State sits at 53.1, good for 36th.
The 3-year average has BYU at 55.3 and Arizona State at 51.3. Looking ahead to 2026, BYU sits at 66.3 and Arizona State at 46.5.
The preseason view on both teams has held up in different ways. BYU was picked to finish second in the Big 12 and started the year ranked No. 17 in the preseason top 25.
The Cougars opened 6-0, climbed to No. 11, and then took the UCF hit. Arizona State was projected seventh in the Big 12 and is 4-3 overall, with a London win over Kansas despite being outgained by 200 yards and losses to Texas A&M by 28, Baylor by 36 and Texas Tech by 28.
The Sun Devils also picked up a 28-17 Big 12 win over Kansas State last Saturday.
Offensively, BYU should be able to lean back into control. The Cougars rank 12th of 68 Power Four teams on offense, while Arizona State’s defense sits 52nd.
BYU wasted too many snaps against UCF, including four three-and-outs and a Bachmeier interception before halftime that led to points for the Knights. The run game has also missed All-Big 12 back LJ Martin, and against UCF the Cougars broke only one explosive run.
That matchup gives BYU a path back to rhythm. Arizona State is 95th in yards per carry allowed, 100th in stopping long runs, and lands in the bottom 15 of the opponent-adjusted defensive categories at 52nd overall, 54th against the run and 54th against the pass. BYU and Arizona State were the only Big 12 teams to bring top-25 defenses into 2024 and 2025, but Arizona State had to rebuild its two-deep this offseason, and the transfer wave has not matched that standard.
The expectation is that Preston Rex will find some explosive runs, and Bachmeier can cash in on red-zone chances.
On the other side, Arizona State’s offense has been a moving target. The Sun Devils rank 48th of 68 Power Four teams on offense, while BYU’s defense is eighth.
Arizona State’s quarterback situation has already shifted multiple times, starting with Cutter Boley, who was booed off the field after going 1-of-5 for 7 yards. Last week, the Sun Devils split time between Mikey Keene, who went 10-of-20 for 160 yards, and freshman Jake Fette, who finished 3-of-6 for 45.
Keene is dealing with injuries this week, so Fette appears likely to get the nod.
That matters because BYU’s defense is not expected to give up another outlier performance. Jenkins nearly threw for 300 yards and three scores against the Cougars last week, but that kind of output is not the expectation here.
BYU has been one of the stronger defenses in the country for most of the last three seasons, and the UCF game fits more as a hangover than a new norm after the Notre Dame win. Teams that beat an AP top 10 opponent have gone 5-7 straight-up and 4-8 against the spread the following week this season.
Arizona State does have one bright spot in freshman back Cardae Mack, who has put together back-to-back 150-plus-yard games and scored six touchdowns over the last three games. Even so, the pick leans on BYU’s front seven to handle that threat and force the Sun Devils into a tougher night through the air.
This shapes up as the kind of game where BYU settles back in, cleans up the mistakes from the UCF loss and gets its Big 12 and Playoff push moving again.
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