BYU gets back on the field against Arizona State on Halloween, and the numbers point clearly in the Cougars’ direction. After the loss to UCF, this matchup offers a chance to reset, and the advanced metrics say BYU should have the edge if it plays to its standard.
The first place that edge shows up is through the air. Arizona State has seen only one passing attack this season that qualifies as above average, and that was Texas Tech.
The Sun Devils were overwhelmed in that game, giving up 43 points in the first half and 53 overall. Will Hammond finished 18 of 26 for 232 yards before the game got away and Tommy Castellanos handled garbage time.
BYU, meanwhile, comes in ranked 36th in passing success rate. That puts the Cougars in the same neighborhood as Texas Tech, which is 32nd.
Arizona State’s next-best test came against Kansas State, which ranks 77th in passing success rate, and the Wildcats were without their starting quarterback in that game. The rest of ASU’s opponents have been even less threatening; four of them rank 90th or worse in offensive success rate.
If the weather holds - rain had been in the forecast earlier this week - BYU should be positioned to throw the ball effectively.
The Sun Devils’ offense has struggled in plenty of other ways, too. They rank 102nd nationally in points per drive, which makes them the second-worst offense BYU has faced all season.
The only Cougars opponent with a lower ranking is TCU at 121st. ASU is also 102nd in offensive success rate, another sign that it has had trouble consistently staying ahead of the sticks.
That should matter a lot for BYU’s defense, even if there’s a warning label attached after the UCF game. The metrics pointed to an advantage for the Cougars then as well, but UCF still came out on top.
Still, there’s a meaningful difference in this matchup: Arizona State’s quarterbacks are not as slippery as UCF’s Keyone Jenkins. Jenkins was sacked on 6% of BYU pressures.
Arizona State’s quarterbacks have been much easier to bring down. Mikey Keene has been sacked on 23% of pressures, and true freshman Jake Fette has been sacked on 50% of pressures.
If BYU can generate pressure, Kelly Poppinga’s defense should have real chances to finish the job. Against UCF, Jenkins’ biggest plays came when he escaped and extended the play outside the pocket.
That kind of escape act may be harder to pull off this time. If the BYU defense from the first six games shows up, the Cougars should make life miserable for ASU.
The trouble for Arizona State gets even worse on money downs. The Sun Devils rank 136th in conversion down percentage on third and fourth downs, which is among the worst marks in college football. When BYU gets them behind schedule, it should have a strong chance of forcing punts.
Arizona State is also 120th in three-and-out rate, meaning one out of every three possessions has ended without a first down. That is exactly the kind of profile BYU’s defense will want to attack.
For BYU, the formula is straightforward: get off the field, get the ball back, and let the offense work. If that doesn’t happen, it would be a bad sign for what comes next in the back half of the season.
In Other News...
Big 12 Takes Strong Stand After What BYU Faced At UCF
The Big 12 moved quickly after BYUs trip to UCF turned into more than just a football story, fining the Knights $100,000 over anti-religious chants from fans during the game. The conference said UCF had pregame protocols in place and reacted during the contest by removing the individuals responsible, but it still made clear the behavior crossed a line and demanded a response from the league office.
Along with the fine, the Big 12 announced a new policy aimed at discriminatory conduct at athletic events, adding penalties meant to give the conference more teeth when incidents like this arise again. For BYU, the fallout offers some measure of acknowledgment after a difficult scene in Orlando, while also putting the rest of the league on notice that the conference is prepared to act more aggressively going forward. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs UCF Trip Just Sparked A Bigger Big 12 Response
The Big 12s response to BYUs trip to UCF came down hard and fast, with the conference fining UCF $100,000 after discriminatory chants were directed at BYU fans during and after the game. Even though UCF worked to follow the proper protocols and remove the fans responsible, the league said the behavior crossed a line and made clear that it would not be treated as a routine crowd issue.
The fine will go toward student education initiatives, but the bigger takeaway for BYU is what the Big 12 said comes next. Repeat incidents could bring in-game penalties and even larger financial hits, a sign the conference is trying to draw a sharper boundary around how visiting fans are treated and how quickly a game atmosphere can turn into something more serious. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Gets Its Arizona State Rematch With Plenty Still Boiling
The memory of last years finish still hangs over this matchup, and Kenny Dillingham has already acknowledged he wasnt at his best when Arizona State and BYU tangled in that chaotic ending. ASU fans spilled onto the field before the final play had been fully sorted out, then one second went back on the clock, turning a wild scene into a game that lingered well beyond the final whistle. BYU nearly pulled off the comeback with a last-gasp Hail Mary, so the rematch comes with more than just a fresh date on the schedule.
Both teams arrive in a very different place now. BYU has moved forward with a better record, while Arizona State has hit more turbulence and recently made a change at quarterback by benching Cutter Boley. Saturday offers a chance to see whether the Cougars can keep the momentum of a steadier season going, or whether the Sun Devils can use a second meeting to put the old controversy behind them. [Read more 🡒]