The 2025 college football season may have just wrapped, but the 2026 landscape is already taking shape-and for the Big 12, and BYU in particular, the road ahead looks like it could be lined with potholes. Thanks to the new College Football Playoff (CFP) format, there’s a scenario looming that could leave a team like BYU out in the cold, even if they do everything short of perfection.
What’s Changing in 2026?
First, let’s break down the new structure. The College Football Playoff is holding steady at 12 teams, but the way those spots are filled is shifting.
Automatic bids now go to each of the Power 4 conference champions-Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12. Notre Dame, still independent, can earn an at-large bid if it finishes in the Top 12 of the final AP Poll.
And the highest-ranked Group of 6 champion also earns a spot, which now includes the revamped Pac-12.
If these rules had been in place last season, ACC Champion Duke and Notre Dame would’ve both been in. That means a team like No. 10 Miami-who ended up playing for the national title-would’ve been left out entirely.
That’s the kind of math that should make every Big 12 team pause.
Why the Big 12 Should Be Concerned
The new format makes it significantly harder for the Big 12 to get more than one team into the Playoff. With four automatic bids locked in and Notre Dame essentially getting a golden ticket if they hit 11 wins, the at-large pool shrinks fast.
And that’s where things get dicey for BYU.
Let’s say BYU goes into the 2026 season and beats Notre Dame in Provo on October 17th. That’s a huge win.
But then, later in the season, they drop a game to a Big 12 opponent-say, Texas Tech-and still manage to make it to the Big 12 title game. If they lose again in that conference championship, they’d finish 11-2.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame, with a relatively soft schedule outside of BYU and a November matchup with Miami, could finish 11-1. Even with the head-to-head loss to BYU, the Irish would likely get in-because they didn’t have to play a conference title game, and because they’d have that shiny 11-1 record and a win over a quality opponent like Miami.
So BYU could beat Notre Dame on the field and still watch them get a Playoff spot while they’re left on the outside looking in. That’s not just frustrating-it’s a structural disadvantage.
The Conference Championship Dilemma
This scenario raises a serious question: Are conference championship games helping or hurting teams in this new format?
In the past, winning your conference title was a golden ticket. Now, it might be a trap. If playing an extra game can knock you out of the Playoff while a team like Notre Dame, who doesn’t have to risk it all in a title game, gets to cruise into the postseason, what’s the incentive?
It’s a tough pill to swallow for programs that have to run the gauntlet of a full conference schedule, then win a title game just to get the same consideration as a team that can schedule more flexibly and avoid that final hurdle.
There had been talk of expanding the Playoff to 16 or even 24 teams, which could’ve eased some of this pressure. But that expansion stalled out, with the SEC and Big Ten unable to agree on a path forward. So here we are-stuck in a format that could penalize teams for playing more football.
What This Means for BYU
For BYU, the margin for error is razor-thin. The Cougars could put together a dream season, take down a national brand like Notre Dame, and still miss the Playoff if they can’t close the deal in the Big 12 title game. It’s a harsh reality in a system that’s supposed to reward excellence.
This isn’t just a BYU problem-it’s a Big 12 problem. And it’s a warning shot for every program outside the SEC and Big Ten power structure. If the current format holds, the Playoff could become less about who you beat and more about when and how you lose.
So as we look ahead to 2026, the stakes are clear. Win your conference-or risk being left behind. Because in this new era of college football, even a head-to-head win over a Playoff team might not be enough to get you in the door.