At the halfway point of the college football season, the betting market has drawn a pretty clean map of who is beating expectations and who is sinking under them. And the most reliable teams against the spread keep showing up out West.
Six teams are unbeaten against the number, and five of them live in the Mountain or Pacific time zones. Oregon State stands alone with a 6-0 mark against the spread, while BYU, Utah, UCLA and New Mexico are all 5-0. Georgia State is the other perfect team, and it’s the only one from the eastern half of the FBS.
That list says plenty about the season so far: the market keeps undervaluing the teams that have done the most surprising things.
The flip side is just as clear. Washington and USC have been among the biggest disappointments for bettors.
The Trojans are 2-5 against the spread, while the Huskies are 1-5. Washington’s lone cover came against USC.
Colorado, meanwhile, is 1-4 against the spread and, in the newsletter’s words, is “quickly becoming irrelevant under Deion Sanders.”
Not every team fits neatly into either bucket. Washington State has only one win, over Duquesne, but is 4-2 against the spread.
Arizona is 5-1 on the field but just 2-4 in the sportsbooks. Oregon was never expected to be 2-3 after five games, but the Ducks have at least stayed respectable at 2-3 against the spread.
The week’s picks begin with Washington getting 3.5 points at Purdue on Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox.
Later, Alabama is laying 8.5 at Tennessee, and Washington State is catching 18 at Oregon State in a 3 p.m. game on USA Network. Notre Dame is a 10.5-point favorite at BYU in the 4:30 p.m. ABC window, while Wisconsin is getting 2.5 at UCLA at 4:30 p.m. on NBC.
That Bruins game comes with a warning attached. UCLA is coming off the physical win at Oregon and now has the attention that comes with it, while Wisconsin has had two weeks to get ready. The pick is Wisconsin.
Utah is laying 15.5 at Colorado in the 7:15 p.m. ESPN slot.
The note attached to that one: Colorado quarterback Isaac Wilson is facing his former team. The edge goes to the former team, with Utah expected to make it close early and not close late.
Cal is also taking points at home, getting 9 against Wake Forest at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2. The reasoning is familiar: the Bears are again being backed at home against an East Coast team on a long trip.
The difference this week is that Cal is not expected to pull the outright upset because Wake Forest is “good. Very good.”
The board also includes Fresno State at San Diego State, with Fresno State laying 7.5, and Nebraska getting 7.5 at Oregon in an 8 p.m. Fox game.
The straight-up winners listed for the week are Washington, Ohio State, Arizona State, Alabama, Oregon State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Utah, Wake Forest, Fresno State and Oregon.
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