No. 8 BYU heads into its meeting with Iowa State carrying the kind of numbers that usually make a home crowd feel pretty good.
The matchup models are almost all leaning toward the Cougars, though not every projection sees this one as a runaway. FPI gives BYU an 83.8% chance to beat Iowa State, while SP+ is even more bullish, putting the Cougars at 85% with an expected final score of 34-17. CFB graphs is close behind at 79%, projecting a 32-18 finish.
That confidence starts with how BYU has stacked up overall. FPI has the Cougars 12th nationally in efficiency, with the defense leading the way at No. 19 and the offense sitting 25th after a rough outing against TCU.
SP+ is similarly high on BYU, ranking the Cougars 14th overall. That model slots the defense 13th nationally, the offense 24th, and the special teams inside the top 20.
Iowa State, meanwhile, comes in with more modest marks across the board. SP+ has the Cyclones at 59th overall, with the offense ranked 64th, the defense 48th, and special teams 27th. FEI is a little more optimistic on Iowa State than the other systems, placing the Cyclones 36th.
That same FEI model is still on BYU’s side in the game itself, just not by as wide a margin. It gives the Cougars a 69.7% chance to win and projects a 30-23 score, which would mean Iowa State covering the spread. FEI is the outlier among the models in that regard.
FPI also nudged BYU’s season outlook upward after the Cougars’ gritty road win over TCU. The model now projects a regular-season record of 9.2-2.8. It also says BYU has a 40% chance to finish with 10 or more wins in 2026, a threshold that would matter a lot if the Cougars want to put themselves in position to win the Big 12 and reach the College Football Playoff.
One way BYU could boost those odds is by taking care of business in the two biggest remaining games on the schedule. FPI says winning at least one of the matchups with Notre Dame and Utah would help significantly.
The setting for this one also matters. Iowa State is coming to Provo for the first time under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers after the Cyclones changed direction in the offseason. BYU and Iowa State already know what this matchup can look like after last year’s game in Ames, when the Cougars erased a double-digit deficit to pull out the win.
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BYU Just Rewarded Key Staffers Behind Its Recent Rise
Kevin Young continued to reshape his staff this week by rewarding two key voices behind BYUs recent climb. Brandon Dunson has been elevated to associate head coach, while Jordan Brady was promoted to assistant coach and will keep his duties as Director of Player Development, a sign the program is leaning into the continuity that has helped fuel its surge in recent seasons.
Both coaches have played important roles in a stretch that has included NCAA Tournament appearances and a steady pipeline of player growth that has reached the NBA Draft. BYU also added seven new graduate assistants, giving Young even more depth around the program as the Cougars look ahead to the 2026-27 opener against Ohio State and the next step in the rise. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Has A Real Edge Friday But One Offensive Concern Lingers
BYU gets Iowa State at home Friday on a short week, and the setup tilts in the Cougars favor in more ways than one. Five of their final eight games are in Provo, and the matchups on paper point to a team that has leaned on its defense and efficiency in the biggest situations, especially with an ability to force quick punts and finish drives with touchdowns once it gets inside the red zone.
The concern is on the other side of the ball, where the offense still has to prove it can keep functioning if LJ Martin is not available. Iowa State has had trouble extending drives on third and fourth down and has also been leaky in the red zone, which creates an opening for BYU, but the Cougars still need a clear answer on how much production they can expect from the run game without their star back. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Heads Into Iowa State Showdown With Major Injury Concerns
The buildup to BYUs Week 6 trip to Iowa State has been shaped as much by the injury report as by the matchup itself. The Cougars are headed into a game that already carries plenty of Big 12 weight, but they will have to navigate it without running back LJ Martin and linebacker Isaiah Glasker, two key pieces on opposite sides of the ball.
Iowa State has its own holes to manage, with defenders Drew Surges, Caden Crawford and Ka'Mori Moore all sidelined. That leaves both staffs adjusting on the fly, and for BYU the question is how well the next men up can absorb the loss of proven production in a game where every small edge could matter. [Read more 🡒]