PROVO - BYU comes into Saturday still ranked in the top 10 of the latest College Football Playoff rankings, but the mood around the Cougars is a little different after last week’s 28-20 loss to Utah. That game turned on the same two things that have shaped the Holy War lately: red zone finishing and turnovers.
Utah made the most of its chances, scoring touchdowns on four of five trips inside the red zone. Devon Dampier accounted for all four of those scores, throwing two touchdown passes and running for two more. BYU, meanwhile, came away with only 13 points on five red zone possessions, settling for a touchdown, two field goals and two interceptions.
The giveaways were the bigger blow. Utah intercepted Bear Bachmeier four times, and Trey Reynolds delivered the decisive play with a goal-line pick to seal the win. The loss snapped BYU’s three-game series winning streak, while the undefeated Utes celebrated on the field and partied like it was 2008.
Now the Cougars turn to Baylor, with kickoff set for 1:30 p.m. on FOX.
This matchup brings together two teams that have taken different paths to this point. In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I picked BYU to finish second in the Big 12 and slotted them at No. 17 in the preseason top 25. After opening 6-0 and beating Notre Dame, the Cougars climbed to No. 11 before sliding to No. 22 following losses to UCF and Utah.
I had Baylor pegged for 11th in the Big 12, but the Bears have beaten that projection, even after the midseason firing of head coach Dave Aranda, who finished 40-40 in his time there. Joe Klanderman has kept the group fighting, and Baylor enters at 6-3 and just outside the current Game Grader top 25.
The numbers suggest a tight game on paper, but the matchups point in different directions depending on who has the ball.
BYU’s offense has taken a hit without LJ Martin. The All-Big 12 running back has been recovering from an injury, missed four full games, and had only a minimal role against Utah. Without him, the Cougars’ ground game has stalled, forcing Bear Bachmeier to shoulder more of the load.
There is at least some encouraging news for BYU: Martin is listed as probable, which should mean a more normal workload. The split in BYU’s rushing production with and without him is stark.
In the first three games, with Martin available, the Cougars ranked fifth in my opponent-adjusted rushing metric. Over the five games without him, they dropped to 45th among 68 Power 4 teams.
Even with the run game uneven, BYU still has juice on the perimeter. Legend Glasker has been a big-play threat with 78 yards per game, and his 18.0 yards per catch ranks sixth in FBS among receivers with at least 30 catches. Tight ends Walker Lyons and Roger Saleapaga have also produced, and the offensive line was named one of 10 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award.
Baylor’s defense will have something to say about all of that. The Bears rank 17th in FBS, allowing just 17 points per game, and they have kept every opponent below its yards-per-play average. They are also seventh in negative play rate, a stat that captures disruption behind the line of scrimmage through sacks and tackles for loss.
When Baylor has the ball, it runs into one of the toughest defenses in the Big 12.
The Bears’ offense ranks 36th among 68 Power 4 teams in opponent-adjusted grading, while BYU’s defense sits fifth. Baylor has been rolling lately, scoring 41 points against UCF and 42 against Iowa State in its two wins since Aranda was dismissed. Former five-star DJ Lagway has had an uneven season and is currently last in the Big 12 in QB rating, but those two games were clean: 10 yards per attempt, six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Still, those numbers came against two of the conference’s weaker defenses. BYU is a different animal, and its defense has been the Big 12’s best unit.
Gavin Freeman has been the focal point for Baylor, and the offense leans heavily on him. He has 69 catches, the most in the Big 12, and that total is more than Baylor’s next four receivers combined. But BYU’s pass defense has the kind of profile that can take away a top target, and Baylor’s run game has not been strong enough to guarantee balance if Freeman gets bottled up.
That sets up the same basic question all night: can Baylor keep pace if BYU’s defense controls the line of scrimmage?
I expect the Bears to hang around early. They’ve been playing with energy since the coaching change, and the recent offensive surge is real. But after halftime, BYU’s defense should settle in, shut down Freeman, and make life difficult for Baylor’s ground game.
The Cougars should bounce back, and they should do it in a game that stays close for a while before they pull away late.
In Other News...
BYU Is Suddenly At The Center Of A Big 12 Playoff Push
The Big 12s playoff picture has started to look a lot different, and BYU is right in the middle of it. During a recent discussion, Josh Pate and Joel Klatt pointed to Utah, BYU and Texas Tech as teams building strong College Football Playoff cases, with the league suddenly drawing more respect for what its top contenders have done on the field.
For BYU, that matters because the conversation is no longer just about staying relevant in the conference race. The bigger question is whether the Big 12s collective resume can stack up with the nations best, and whether the league could land as many as three playoff bids. In a selection process increasingly driven by resumes rather than brand names, BYU finds itself in a spot where every week can reshape both its own path and the conferences ceiling. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Defense Has A Turnover Problem At The Worst Time
BYUs defense has been doing plenty of the hard part this fall, getting hands on passes and forcing quarterbacks to fit the ball into tighter windows. The Cougars still lead the nation in pass breakups, but the turnover column has not followed, and the secondary has now gone five games without an interception as the 2026 season has worn on.
Injuries to Raider Damuni and Evan Johnson have thinned out the back end, and Mississippi State transfer Jayven Williams has been asked to help steady things while also adding his own pass breakups. Coaches and players know the frustration is in finishing those plays, not just contesting them, and they remain confident the interceptions will come if the defense keeps putting itself in position. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Just Got Back A Bench Piece With Real Stakes
Dawson Bakers return gave BYU a small but meaningful lift in its game against Montana State, a reminder that even limited minutes can matter when a player has been through as much as he has. After multiple season-ending injuries, including a severe knee injury, Baker was back on the floor for eight minutes under a minutes restriction, and he even scored his first points for BYU since Nov. 27, 2025.
For Kevin Young, the challenge now is less about getting Baker back in the rotation and more about handling the process carefully. BYU has a bench piece with real value if he can stay available, but the Cougars are clearly treating this as a gradual return rather than a quick fix, with Bakers injury history still shaping every step of the plan. [Read more 🡒]