BYU gets the weekend off, but the Cougars’ playoff and Big 12 outlook still has plenty riding on what happens elsewhere.
With six top-25 matchups on the board and a crowded college football slate ahead, BYU has a clear set of results it would like to see go its way. The biggest swing, at least according to The Rooting Guide, comes in the Big 12 race. Utah is the one result that would move the needle most for BYU’s CFP chances, and that matters because the Cougars still have to face the Utes on the road later in November.
That’s why an early Utah loss in conference play would be such a boost for BYU. The Rooting Guide says a Utah loss would raise BYU’s CFP odds by 1.1%, while a Utah win would lower them by 0.9%. Through three games, Utah has looked like BYU’s biggest threat to a Big 12 championship.
Kansas State is another team BYU has reason to watch closely. The Wildcats miss the three favorites to win the league - Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah - which gives them a cleaner path to the Big 12 title game.
If Kansas State were to go 8-1 in conference play, that would leave BYU with far less margin for error. A Cincinnati win over Kansas State would help the Cougars by improving the conference win percentage of BYU’s opponents, which can matter in tiebreakers, and by cutting down Kansas State’s title-game chances.
BYU also has an eye on Arizona, its best win so far. The Cougars benefit if Arizona beats former conference foe Washington State.
That game carries the biggest CFP impact for BYU on the weekend, according to The Rooting Guide. An Arizona win would lift BYU’s CFP odds by 1.0%, while a Washington State win would knock them down by 1.6%, a 2.7% swing overall.
That matchup matters because of opponent winning percentage, one of the Big 12 tiebreaker factors. BYU plays Baylor and does not face Colorado, so a Baylor win over the Buffaloes would also help the Cougars in that area.
There are several other upsets that would give BYU a lift, too: Northwestern over No. 5 Indiana, Oklahoma over No.
2 Georgia, Central Michigan over No. 6 Miami, South Carolina over No.
8 Alabama, Illinois over No. 7 Ohio State and Wake Forest over No.
16 Louisville.
Florida and Ole Miss are both live threats to BYU’s CFP hopes, so losses by either team would be useful for the Cougars. Florida gets the slight edge in terms of importance because its remaining schedule looks a bit tougher than Ole Miss’ the rest of the way.
Texas’ win over Ohio State already makes the Longhorns tough competition for an at-large spot, and Tennessee is another team BYU has to keep tabs on. If the Volunteers win, they would likely move ahead of BYU in the rankings and could eventually take an at-large berth from the Cougars. That game can help or hurt BYU depending on how the rest of the season shakes out.
BYU and USC have been battling for position in the AP poll, and an Oregon win would help BYU as well as the Big 12. The Ducks already lost to Oklahoma State earlier this season.
Colorado State is another team that could matter for BYU’s resume. The Rams have some upset potential in the Pac-12, but they may need quarterback Hauss Hejny to play at a high level in conference action. Hejny is doubtful against UTSA, and a Colorado State win would benefit BYU’s resume.
In Other News...
LJ Martin Is Chasing BYU History As A Bigger Concern Emerges
LJ Martin has spent the opening stretch of the 2026 season climbing a pretty significant ladder in BYU history. He entered the year ninth on the Cougars all-time rushing list at 2,541 yards, and after three games he has already moved into sixth with 2,869, passing several notable names along the way as he keeps moving closer to the top of the record book.
For BYU, the chase is becoming a storyline worth monitoring, but so is the way the Cougars handle it. Martin is on pace to threaten the programs all-time rushing mark if he keeps producing at a high level the rest of the way, including any postseason games, yet the staff is also managing his workload so he is at his best when the schedule gets tougher and the biggest opponents arrive later in the season. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Already Has A Rising Freshman Fans Need To Watch
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Bachmeiers start has been steady and productive, with 662 passing yards, six touchdown passes and just one interception, plus added value as a runner, while the line has opened lanes and kept pressure off him. On the other side, linebacker Cade Uluave has set the tone defensively with the team lead in tackles and an interception, but Glaskers rapid rise has already turned him into one of the most interesting young pieces on the roster, especially after earning two Big 12 freshman of the week honors this early in the year. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Gets A Chance To Prove Last Year's TCU Rout Was Real
BYU heads into its bye week with a little extra time to think about what awaits on Oct. 3, when TCU comes to Provo in a Big 12 matchup that should tell a lot more about both teams than the records alone can. The Cougars are favored to win, with ESPN FPI giving them a 68.7% chance and the early spread sitting at 5.5 points, which reflects both BYUs recent momentum and the lingering memory of what happened the last time these programs crossed paths.
TCU still brings a defense that can make life difficult, but the offense has already raised questions after struggling in its loss to North Carolina. For BYU, this is the kind of early league game that can either validate the idea that last years rout was a sign of something real or remind everyone that Big 12 Saturdays tend to reveal more than they promise. [Read more 🡒]