If Utah and BYU lined up this weekend at a neutral spot somewhere east of Draper - roughly eight miles from the midpoint between Rice-Eccles Stadium and LaVell Edwards Stadium, near a stream in the shadow of Box Elder Peak - the Utes would probably be the slight favorite.
Give BYU running back LJ Martin and linebacker Isaiah Glasker, too, and Utah still comes out ahead by a whisker: 2 points, maybe 3.
That’s the read based on what both teams have shown so far. Utah, ranked No. 12, has been a little sharper, a little cleaner and a little more explosive than No.
8 BYU. The gap isn’t huge, but it’s there.
Strip out each team’s FCS win - Utah over Idaho, BYU over Utah Tech - and both teams sit at 3-0. From there, the separation starts to show.
Utah is scoring 35.7 points per game and allowing only 9.0, which is the best mark in the FBS. That leaves the Utes with a scoring margin of 26.7 points per game.
BYU, by comparison, is averaging 28.7 points and giving up 16.7, for a margin of 12 points per game.
The same pattern shows up in yards per play, often one of the cleanest ways to judge a team because it cuts through pace and style. Utah is averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.0 on defense, a difference of 2.8. BYU is at 6.5 on offense and 4.9 on defense, for a differential of 1.6.
Texas Tech, for what it’s worth, sits at 0.5 in that category.
Still, the schedule matters, and BYU has faced the tougher road so far.
Both teams have played a Pac-12 opponent: Utah hosted Utah State, while BYU went to Colorado State. Both have played a Big 12 road game: Utah beat Iowa State by 14 points, and BYU won at TCU by a touchdown.
In both Ames and Fort Worth, the weather was essentially the same: rain. And both teams have taken on a second Power Four opponent: Utah hosted Arkansas, while BYU welcomed Arizona.
The edge in those matchups leans toward BYU’s schedule. Arizona is better than Arkansas, and Colorado State is better than Utah State.
The Sagarin ratings reflect that, with BYU’s schedule ranked No. 70 nationally and Utah’s at No. 94.
ESPN’s strength-of-record metric also gives BYU the slight nod, ranking the Cougars 14th and the Utes 18th.
So the picture is pretty clear: BYU has played the tougher slate, but Utah has been more dominant, more efficient and more dynamic.
That leaves a narrow call, and the edge goes to Utah for one main reason - it has shown more ways to score. In a Holy War where points are usually hard to come by and big plays matter even more than usual, that matters.
Even so, there’s a real argument that BYU has the higher ceiling based on what each team has shown so far. The Cougars look like a team still climbing. The Utes, by contrast, may already be operating near midseason form.
That’s the challenge facing both coaches. How does Utah’s Morgan Scalley keep pushing a team that is already executing at a very high level? And how does BYU’s Kalani Sitake get the most out of his roster when the biggest moments arrive?
Those moments are coming fast. BYU hosts No. 3 Notre Dame in 10 days in what is shaping up as the biggest game on any Big 12 schedule, with major implications for the conference’s push for a second College Football Playoff berth.
Right now, this week, BYU does not look ready to beat the Irish.
If the Cougars aren’t competitive, the Big 12’s case for an at-large spot would take a serious hit.
So the neutral-site exercise east of Draper, along with the metrics and the imagined return of Martin and Glasker, is really just a way to frame where Utah and BYU stand today.
By Oct. 17, there won’t be any need for guesswork. We’ll know exactly where BYU stands against one of the nation’s best.
In Other News...
BYU Just Rewarded Key Staffers Behind Its Recent Rise
Kevin Young continued to reshape his staff this week by rewarding two key voices behind BYUs recent climb. Brandon Dunson has been elevated to associate head coach, while Jordan Brady was promoted to assistant coach and will keep his duties as Director of Player Development, a sign the program is leaning into the continuity that has helped fuel its surge in recent seasons.
Both coaches have played important roles in a stretch that has included NCAA Tournament appearances and a steady pipeline of player growth that has reached the NBA Draft. BYU also added seven new graduate assistants, giving Young even more depth around the program as the Cougars look ahead to the 2026-27 opener against Ohio State and the next step in the rise. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Has A Real Edge Friday But One Offensive Concern Lingers
BYU gets Iowa State at home Friday on a short week, and the setup tilts in the Cougars favor in more ways than one. Five of their final eight games are in Provo, and the matchups on paper point to a team that has leaned on its defense and efficiency in the biggest situations, especially with an ability to force quick punts and finish drives with touchdowns once it gets inside the red zone.
The concern is on the other side of the ball, where the offense still has to prove it can keep functioning if LJ Martin is not available. Iowa State has had trouble extending drives on third and fourth down and has also been leaky in the red zone, which creates an opening for BYU, but the Cougars still need a clear answer on how much production they can expect from the run game without their star back. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Heads Into Iowa State Showdown With Major Injury Concerns
The buildup to BYUs Week 6 trip to Iowa State has been shaped as much by the injury report as by the matchup itself. The Cougars are headed into a game that already carries plenty of Big 12 weight, but they will have to navigate it without running back LJ Martin and linebacker Isaiah Glasker, two key pieces on opposite sides of the ball.
Iowa State has its own holes to manage, with defenders Drew Surges, Caden Crawford and Ka'Mori Moore all sidelined. That leaves both staffs adjusting on the fly, and for BYU the question is how well the next men up can absorb the loss of proven production in a game where every small edge could matter. [Read more 🡒]