Big 12 Basketball Midseason Hot Seat Check-In: Who’s Safe, Who’s Sweating, and Who’s on the Brink
Tuesday night was quiet in the Big 12 - no games, just a breather before the midweek action heats up again. But while the scoreboard was still, the coaching carousel chatter never really stops.
With the 2025-26 season past its halfway point, it’s a good time to take stock of where each of the league’s 16 head coaches stands. Some are cruising.
Others? Not so much.
Let’s break it down.
🔒 Safe As Houses
- Tommy Lloyd, Arizona
- Kelvin Sampson, Houston
- Bill Self, Kansas
- **T.J.
Otzelberger, Iowa State**
- Grant McCasland, Texas Tech
- Kevin Young, BYU
- Scott Drew, Baylor
This group is exactly what you’d expect - coaches with hardware, momentum, or both. Lloyd brought Pac-12 success with him to Tucson and hasn’t missed a beat.
Sampson and Otzelberger have Big 12 titles under their belts. Self and Drew?
National champions. That kind of pedigree buys you more than just job security - it earns you trust, leverage, and long-term deals.
McCasland is only in year three at Texas Tech, but he’s proving to be a seamless fit in Lubbock. And while Kevin Young is still early in his tenure at BYU, he’s already showing he knows how to work the NIL landscape to his advantage. Both have their programs trending in the right direction.
Bottom line: These seven aren’t going anywhere. They’re well-paid, well-supported, and winning.
📈 "Extend Me, Please"
- Johnny Dawkins, UCF
Dawkins has the Knights on the NCAA Tournament radar after some quality wins, including a pair over ranked teams and another against Texas A&M. He’s under contract through 2026-27, but with his team trending up, he has a strong case for a raise and a couple more years tacked on.
At $2.2 million per year, Dawkins is well below the top tier in terms of salary. A bump to the $3 million range would be more in line with his current performance. He doesn’t need a blockbuster deal - just some deserved recognition for quietly building something sustainable in Orlando.
🟡 Promising Starts
- Russ Hodge, West Virginia
- Steve Lutz, Oklahoma State
Both of these coaches are early in their tenures, and both are showing signs they’re the right person for the job.
Lutz, now in year two at Oklahoma State, has the Cowboys flirting with an NCAA Tournament bid. After reaching the NIT quarterfinals and winning 17 games last year, he’s got OSU in position to match - or even exceed - that win total. A 20-win season is still on the table.
Meanwhile, Hodge has breathed new life into a West Virginia program that’s seen four head coaches in four years. He completely overhauled the roster and still managed to turn the WVU Coliseum back into a fortress - the Mountaineers are 13-1 at home. A 20-win campaign isn’t out of reach, and that alone is a testament to how quickly he’s stabilized the program.
No need for extensions yet, but their athletic directors should feel optimistic.
🟠 Less-Than-Promising Start
- Alex Jensen, Utah
Jensen’s debut season hasn’t gone to plan. The Utes are 9-12 overall with just one Big 12 win. It’s a reminder that even in today’s era of NIL and the transfer portal, not every rebuild happens overnight.
Jensen’s only prior head coaching experience was in the G League with the Canton Charge, and this is his first time running a college program. That said, his deep ties to the university and a six-year contract give him a long leash. Utah fans may not love the early returns, but barring a dramatic shift, he’ll be given time to figure it out.
🔴 It’s All Over But the Press Release
- Bobby Hurley, Arizona State
Hurley’s time in Tempe looks like it’s coming to an end. The Sun Devils are 11-11 overall and just 2-7 in Big 12 play. He’s in the final year of his contract, and the results just haven’t been there.
Add in his public frustration with fan support, and it feels like both sides are ready to move on. Once Arizona State wraps up its Big 12 Tournament run, expect a coaching search to begin - if it hasn’t already.
⚠️ The Hot Seat Bubble
- Tad Boyle, Colorado
- Wes Miller, Cincinnati
- Jamie Dixon, TCU
These three coaches aren’t in immediate danger, but the pressure is mounting.
Boyle has been a fixture at Colorado, racking up over 300 wins and guiding the Buffs through multiple conference changes. But the last two seasons have been rough - departures to the NBA, graduation, and the portal have taken a toll. He’s got a rolling five-year deal and makes under $3 million, but with a new athletic director now in place, nothing is guaranteed.
Wes Miller has nearly 100 wins at Cincinnati, but in year five, the Bearcats still haven’t made the NCAA Tournament. The school extended him through 2028-29 and is paying him nearly $3 million annually. That kind of investment usually comes with expectations, and if the Bearcats keep spinning their wheels, patience could wear thin.
Then there’s Dixon. He’s done more at TCU than any coach before him - four NCAA Tournament appearances, two tournament wins, and consistent competitiveness in a brutal Big 12.
But he’s never cracked double-digit conference wins in a season, and this year he needs a strong finish to get back to the Big Dance. He’s under contract through 2030, but with a relatively new AD in Mike Buddie, there’s always a chance for change if things go south.
For now, all three are likely safe. But a late-season collapse could change the conversation quickly.
💰 The $18.5 Million Question at Kansas State
- Jerome Tang, Kansas State
This is the trickiest situation in the conference - maybe in the country.
Two years ago, Tang was the toast of Manhattan. He led Kansas State to 26 wins and an Elite Eight appearance in his first season. That success triggered a massive contract extension with a hefty $18.5 million buyout designed to ward off suitors.
Now? That buyout is the only thing keeping him in place.
The Wildcats have regressed in each of the past two seasons and are currently 10-12. But it’s not just the record - it’s the lack of identity.
The team looks disjointed, the on-court product uninspired. Tang didn’t help his case last weekend when he told reporters he didn’t owe fans an explanation until March.
That didn’t sit well with a fanbase already losing faith.
If athletic director Gene Taylor can find a booster or two willing to offset the cost, a change could come. But unless that happens, it’s hard to see Kansas State swallowing that buyout and rebooting the program - as warranted as it may feel to many.
Final Thoughts
The Big 12 is a gauntlet, and coaching in this league means living under a microscope. With NIL, the transfer portal, and rising expectations, the margin for error is razor thin. Some coaches are thriving, some are surviving, and a few are clearly on borrowed time.
As the second half of the season unfolds, keep an eye on the bubble names. One losing streak could shift the entire landscape - and one surprise run could buy another year. Welcome to the Big 12.