Bear Bachmeier’s night at TCU was messy, but it still ended the way BYU wanted: with him leading the game-winning touchdown drive.
That’s the balancing act with Bachmeier right now. The passing game never really got rolling against the Horned Frogs, and BYU had zero explosive plays through the air. Still, when the moment called for it, Bachmeier put the offense on his back and finished the job.
One of the clearest positives has been his ball security. Through four games, Bachmeier has only one turnover, and that kind of care with the football has been a major reason BYU beat TCU over the weekend. His total touchdown-to-total-turnovers ratio is second in the Big 12, trailing only JC French IV.
Even with the rough outing, Bachmeier still sits fifth in the Big 12 in explosive play rate and 36th nationally. Before facing TCU, he had been inside the top 15 in that category. The expectation is that those big plays will show back up once he’s playing in dry conditions.
Accuracy was another story against TCU. Bachmeier wasn’t nearly as sharp as usual, and the weather played a clear role.
After the game, Bachmeier and TCU quarterback Jaden Craig both talked about how difficult it was to grip the ball that night. That dip pushed Bachmeier to 47th nationally in on-target rate, which tracks passes that hit a receiver in stride.
There’s also a difference between a throw that’s truly on target and one that’s merely catchable. On that measure, Bachmeier ranks 39th in catchable pass rate.
Another area to watch is how he performs in different types of passing situations. Since arriving at BYU, Bachmeier has been more comfortable on play action than on straight dropbacks. His yards per attempt has been above average on play action and below average on non-play action, and that’s an area he’ll need to improve if he’s going to make a big jump in 2026 compared to 2025.
His overall EPA, which measures a quarterback’s impact on a team’s chance to score, fell to 60th nationally after the TCU game. EPA can swing with big third-down conversions, but it also takes a hit for sacks and turnovers.
The raw yardage was the toughest part to ignore. Bachmeier averaged just 2.6 yards per attempt against TCU, his worst outing as a BYU quarterback.
He entered the game in the top 25 in yards per attempt, but now sits 55th nationally and ninth in the Big 12. Even so, the expectation is that he’ll climb those rankings by season’s end.
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