Bear Bachmeier’s Heisman case isn’t built on betting lines. It’s built on what happens next.
Yes, the BYU quarterback has moved only modestly in FanDuel’s odds - from 66-to-1 before the season to 55-to-1 now. But the real story is that his candidacy has started to take shape in ways the market hasn’t fully caught up to yet.
The first big step came last weekend, when Bachmeier threw three touchdown passes and added another score on the ground in BYU’s 28-17 win over Arizona. The game aired on Fox and drew 3 million viewers, a number that matters just as much as the box score in a Heisman race that runs on performance, team success and visibility.
That formula is simple enough to state and brutal enough to execute: BYU has to keep winning, Bachmeier has to keep playing at an elite level, and enough voters around the country have to actually see him.
That last part is where the Heisman gets tricky for players in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones. Over the past 50 years, only 10 players from those time zones have won the award.
Six came from USC - Charles White, Marcus Allen, Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and Caleb Williams. The others were BYU’s Ty Detmer in 1990, Colorado running back Rashaan Salaam in 1994, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota in 2014 and Colorado cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter in 2024.
Bachmeier is starting from a much less visible place than most eventual winners, more in the mold of Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey in 2015 than a front-runner already splashed across the sport’s biggest stages. McCaffrey piled up record-setting all-purpose yards and still finished second to Alabama’s Derrick Henry, in part because so much of that production came in late-night windows for East Coast viewers.
That’s why the Arizona game mattered so much for BYU. Bachmeier played well, the Cougars got a win that keeps them relevant nationally, and the broadcast gave him a real audience. BYU, ranked 11th, should be able to handle Colorado State this weekend and carry an undefeated record into October, when the schedule gets much louder.
The centerpiece is the Notre Dame game on Oct. 17 in Provo. The matchup came together after Notre Dame and USC paused their historic series for several years, leaving the Irish looking for a quality replacement opponent. BYU had the opening and took it.
That game could end up among the most-watched of the season, and it gives Bachmeier a prime chance to introduce himself to Heisman voters before the race hardens around the usual suspects.
There are 930 Heisman voters, though a few do not submit ballots each year. Utah sits in the Far West voting bloc, which stretches from the Dakotas to California and accounts for just 16.7 percent of the electorate. The other 83.3 percent - roughly 775 voters - is in states east of, or touching, the Mississippi River, plus Colorado and New Mexico.
The geography isn’t unfair, exactly. But it does make life harder for players from the West, especially those without USC’s kind of brand power.
BYU at least has some built-in national recognition. The Cougars have a Heisman winner in Detmer and finalists such as Steve Young and Jim McMahon on the program’s résumé.
That matters, especially when you compare Bachmeier’s position to what Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez faced last season. Rodriguez wasn’t even listed as a candidate in September, then turned into a legitimate finalist after a strong season, national attention for Texas Tech’s defense and a run into the College Football Playoff.
Texas Tech’s nine conference games last season averaged 2.1 million viewers, according to SportsMediaWatch. BYU’s Arizona game topped that by 50 percent.
The Red Raiders’ biggest regular-season audience was 4.04 million for the Fox Big Noon game against Utah. BYU should clear that number against Notre Dame.
There’s also the matter of competition in the region. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore entered the season as the Far West frontrunner, but he struggled in the shocking loss at Oklahoma State.
That needs to keep happening for Bachmeier’s path to stay open. He can’t just be good; he needs to be the West’s best.
That means USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, too, has to slip.
The timing helps Bachmeier if BYU keeps rolling. Ballots are due the afternoon of Dec. 7, one day after the College Football Playoff field and bowl matchups are announced.
By then, voters will know whether the Cougars have won the Big 12, just as they knew last year that Rodriguez had helped Texas Tech reach the playoff. A few hours later, the Heisman will announce its four finalists for New York City.
For Bachmeier, that’s the path. Not a runaway race.
Not a sure thing. Just a real shot at staying in the conversation long enough for the combination of wins, numbers and television exposure to do its work.
In Other News...
BYU Fans Just Earned Praise Cougar Supporters Will Love
BYUs home crowd picked up some unexpected praise after the recent game at LaVell Edwards Stadium, this time from Les Fifita, the father of Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita. After the Wildcats visit to Provo, he publicly thanked BYU fans for the kindness and hospitality his family experienced, describing a game-day atmosphere that went well beyond the usual back-and-forth of a high-profile college football matchup.
Fifita said BYU supporters welcomed his family, offered food and drinks, and treated them with respect throughout the event. He also tied the experience to something bigger than one Saturday afternoon, saying it shaped how he thinks about running a youth football league, a reminder that the reputation of a fan base can travel well beyond the stadium. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Is Suddenly In A Big 12 Conversation Fans Will Love
BYUs strong start has put the Cougars in a familiar but still noteworthy spot for this early stretch of the season: part of the broader Big 12 conversation while bigger-name programs keep soaking up the national spotlight. LSUs emphatic win over Clemson and Texas comeback at Ohio State have dominated the headlines, and even Alabamas physical showing against Kentucky has drawn more attention than most of the teams quietly building momentum. In that kind of crowded landscape, BYU has managed to keep itself in the mix with a start that deserves a little more notice.
The challenge now is whether the Cougars can turn that early traction into the kind of resume that forces the rest of the Big 12 to take them seriously. Notre Dame, Indiana and Miami have all spent time in the same category of teams off to strong openings but not yet fully embraced by the larger national discussion. For BYU, the next few weeks will go a long way toward showing whether this is just a good start or the beginning of a much louder conference race. [Read more 🡒]
Bear Bachmeier Is Putting BYU In Rare Quarterback Company
Bear Bachmeiers start at BYU has already put him in rare company, with his 14-2 record through 16 starts matching the mark former quarterback Brandon Doman posted at the same point in his own college career. The comparison is more than a curiosity, too, because Doman sees the same steady traits in Bachmeier that helped define his own run in Provo, pointing to his leadership, composure and consistency as signs of a quarterback who has settled into the offense with confidence.
The broader conversation around Bachmeier also has a familiar BYU feel because of the way he has paired with LJ Martin to give the Cougars a productive offensive tandem. It is the kind of quarterback-run game combination that invites memories of Domans era with Luke Staley, and it is part of why Bachmeiers place in program history is beginning to draw attention even with plenty of season still ahead. [Read more 🡒]