Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff rankings should look a lot different after a weekend that shook up the top of the board.
The biggest jolts came from the top 10. No.
1 Miami lost to No. 11 Notre Dame, No.
2 Georgia rolled past No. 10 Ole Miss, No.
3 Utah beat No. 9 BYU, No.
5 Alabama handled No. 14 LSU, and No.
6 Kentucky fell to No. 13 Tennessee.
With three losses among teams ranked in the top 10, the committee has plenty to sort through, and programs like Notre Dame and Tennessee are in line to make major gains after statement wins.
The question now is how hard the losses hit. Kentucky still has some margin with two defeats, but the Wildcats no longer control their path to the conference title game. Ole Miss and LSU are in a different spot entirely, and the committee’s view of how far they tumble after home losses to top-ranked opponents will be one of the night’s biggest tells.
There’s also plenty of intrigue lower in the rankings. Notre Dame opened the first CFP rankings at No. 11, and now the Fighting Irish could be headed for the top five after knocking off Miami. The Hurricanes will fall, but the committee has to decide whether they stay ahead of Notre Dame despite the head-to-head result and the Irish’s starting position.
Oregon is another team to watch closely. The Ducks beat No.
12 Ohio State, and a jump from No. 23 would show how the committee views their at-large chances if the Big Ten title path slips away. Oregon may still be sitting behind some two-loss teams, but every spot matters at this stage.
The Ducks’ head-to-head win over No. 20 USC could also become part of the discussion.
USC owns one fewer loss than Oregon, so the Trojans likely remain in front for now. Still, Lincoln Riley’s team still has No.
4 Indiana and No. 8 UCLA left on the schedule, so that ordering could keep changing.
Another Big Ten wrinkle involves No. 13 Iowa, which looks like the leading candidate to give the conference a third team in the playoff picture behind Indiana and UCLA.
And with three weeks still left, nothing is locked in. UCLA, meanwhile, could get a bump after taking care of Minnesota on the road.
BYU is in a tricky spot as well. If the Cougars are placed too low, they could find themselves on the outside of the 12-team field, especially with two conference losses and no clear route to the Big 12 title game.
The committee’s projected top 25 ahead of Tuesday’s release has Georgia at No. 1, followed by Utah, Indiana, Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, UCLA, Tennessee, and Texas Tech. Kentucky sits at No. 11, with Wake Forest, Iowa, Houston, USC, BYU, Oregon, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Arizona, Boise State, LSU, New Mexico, and Missouri rounding out the list.
A different projected order also has Miami at No. 1, Georgia at No.
2, Utah at No. 3, Indiana at No. 4, and Alabama at No. 5, with Kentucky, Texas, UCLA, BYU, and Ole Miss filling out the rest of the top 10.
In that version, Notre Dame lands at No. 11, followed by Ohio State, Tennessee, LSU, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Houston, Missouri, Iowa, USC, South Carolina, Arizona, Oregon, Florida, and Boise State.
The rankings will be revealed at 6 p.m. PT, and while the final bracket-setting list will eventually look different, Tuesday’s release should still offer a clear read on how the committee sees the race taking shape.
In Other News...
BYU Could Be Getting Two Key Starters Back At The Right Time
BYUs depth chart for the Baylor game brought a little more clarity to a couple of important injury situations, with running back LJ Martin and cornerback Evan Johnson both listed after missing time. Martin had already worked his way back into action last week in a limited role, and the expectation now is that his workload can grow if he continues trending in the right direction. Johnsons return to the depth chart is just as notable on the other side of the ball, since he has been out for two games and gives the Cougars another experienced option in the secondary.
There is still some uncertainty around tight end Roger Saleapaga, who also appears on the depth chart despite a recent injury. For BYU, getting Martin and Johnson back would come at a useful moment as the Cougars try to stabilize both their run game and pass defense, but the full picture may not be clear until game time. Saleapagas status adds another layer to watch, especially if BYU needs more help in the middle of the field against Baylor. [Read more 🡒]
BYUs Playoff Margin Just Got Even Smaller In The Big 12
Utahs win over BYU did more than settle a rivalry game for the moment. It also sent the Utes soaring to No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings, the highest spot in program history, while earning them Pop-Tarts Bowl crazy good team of the week honors. For BYU, the result only sharpened the pressure in a Big 12 race where every week seems to tighten the margins.
The Utes now head into a meeting with Arizona carrying the leagues top ranking and a clear path toward the conference championship game. For BYU, the bigger concern is what this means in the larger playoff picture, where Utahs rise leaves even less room for error as the season moves into its most consequential stretch. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Has A Chance At Something Bigger If It Can Settle Down
BYUs season has already shown both sides of what this team can be. At 7-2 with three games left in the regular season, the Cougars have enough wins to keep bigger goals in view, and they have already proven they can handle a heavyweight like Notre Dame. But the same stretch has also reminded everyone around the program that talent alone has not been enough, with recent losses and turnovers interrupting any sense of momentum.
Kalani Sitake and his players have spent the week talking about leadership and staying connected as the schedule tightens up. Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati are still ahead, and each one gives BYU a chance to strengthen its case for something more meaningful than a good record. The question now is whether the Cougars can settle into the kind of steady football that turns a promising season into one with real staying power. [Read more 🡒]