It’s still October, but the Buffalo Sabres already look like a team that could spend most of the season grinding through the Eastern Conference picture instead of cruising through it.
Buffalo is 6-4-3 out of the gate, a record that leaves it 11th in the East and seventh in the Atlantic Division. That’s not alarming this early, but it also doesn’t look like the kind of start that points to an easy return to the playoffs after last spring’s breakthrough, when the Sabres snapped the NHL’s longest postseason drought at 14 seasons.
The projections aren’t exactly painting a clear path, either. Hockey Alchemy dropped Buffalo into its “coin flip” tier for projected final standings, and other outlets are landing in the same neighborhood. The message is pretty simple: the Sabres are in the mix, but they’re far from safe.
A big part of that uncertainty is how uneven Buffalo has looked. The team still hasn’t put together a full 60-minute performance this season.
Goaltending has wobbled, the offense wasn’t clicking until Thursday night’s 7-6 win over the Anaheim Ducks, and both special teams have had their ugly moments. The Sabres have done enough to keep banking points, which matters, but the level of play still needs to rise a lot.
The margin in the East makes that even more stressful. HockeyStats.com projects only an 11-point gap between the East’s final playoff spot - Buffalo at 96 points - and last-place Detroit at 85.
In the West, that same separation is 24 points. The wild-card race in the East is packed so tightly that six teams are separated by just two points: the Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers.
That kind of setup leaves almost no room to drift. Buffalo has been able to hover in the middle for now, but one long winning streak or one bad slide can change the picture fast. As things stand, the Sabres look like a team that may be fighting for position until April.
That’s why leaning on last season’s finish isn’t the answer. Fans can point to Buffalo’s slow start a year ago - 11-14-4 through 29 games - and the eventual playoff berth, but the way the Sabres got there was extreme.
They went 39-9-5 over their final 53 games, piling up 83 of a possible 106 points. That kind of surge is not something to pencil in again, especially in a stronger Eastern Conference.
That reality is part of why general manager Jarmo Kekalainen stressed at the start of training camp that the Sabres couldn’t coast on what they accomplished last season. A repeat trip to the playoffs was always going to require a steadier, more complete effort from opening night to the finish.
There are still reasons to believe Buffalo can settle in. Its all-situations expected goal share sits at 52.5%, which ranks 10th, according to Natural Stat Trick, even with the power play and penalty kill underperforming. The team’s 27th-ranked PDO of 0.979 also suggests some puck luck could swing back its way.
Help may also be coming in goal. Veteran Alex Lyon is expected back at some point, and the Sabres could use that stability.
Last season, they leaned on a highly effective three-goalie rotation. This year, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Colten Ellis have not been able to provide the same consistency as a two-man tandem.
There’s also room for the younger players to settle into bigger roles after the departures of Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram. That gives the Sabres some real upside, but it doesn’t erase the fact that they still need cleaner hockey.
And that’s the biggest issue right now. Lindy Ruff’s club has shown it can flash, but the lapses keep showing up too - including late in the third period Thursday against Anaheim.
Treading water is one thing. Climbing the standings with some consistency is something else entirely, and Buffalo is going to have to get there if it wants to stay in the playoff chase.
In Other News...
Sabres Line Shakeup Just Unlocked Something Huge For Tage Thompson
A late lineup tweak gave Buffalo a different look against Anaheim, and it paid off in a big way. Peyton Krebs was elevated into the first line mix and immediately helped tilt the ice, piling up three assists in the Sabres 7-6 win while Tage Thompson turned the change into one of his biggest nights of the season.
Thompsons hat trick and five-point performance were the headline, but the chemistry on that top unit was the real story for Buffalo. The Sabres got a glimpse of how dangerous that group can be when it clicks, and the way Krebs fit into the role left the coaching staff with a useful problem to think about once the lineup settles back down. [Read more 🡒]
Zach Benson Is Forcing A Bigger Sabres Question Up Front
Zach Bensons recent stretch has given the Sabres another look at their forward mix, and it has not been a subtle one. After Lindy Ruff bumped Benson into a more prominent role, the young winger has looked increasingly comfortable alongside Tage Thompson and Peyton Krebs, bringing the kind of energy Buffalo has come to expect from him through hard forechecking, clean support work and a knack for helping teammates find space.
The numbers have backed up the eye test, too, with that group tilting play in Buffalos favor while Benson has added to his point production. What makes it more interesting for the Sabres is how much less effective the same unit has looked in limited time without him, which turns Bensons surge into more than a nice individual run and into a bigger question about how Ruff wants to build the top of the lineup going forward. [Read more 🡒]