The Buffalo Sabres didn’t pay for Noah Ostlund’s résumé. They paid for what they think he’s about to become.
Buffalo locked up the forward on an eight-year extension worth an average annual value of $6.6 million, a deal that immediately sparked plenty of noise online. Some called it a “massive overpay.”
Others said they had “never heard of Ostlund until now.” But the Sabres clearly saw enough last season to decide this was the right time to commit.
And there was real substance behind that decision. Ostlund played in 60 regular-season games, put up 27 points, and added two more in three playoff games.
More than the raw totals, though, he earned trust. As the season wore on, head coach Lindy Ruff leaned on him in heavy, high-leverage minutes, and Ostlund handled it with a maturity that stood out.
His value showed up most on the defensive side. Evolving Hockey had him in the 90th percentile defensively, with a goals above replacement of 4.5.
For a young player still carving out his place in the league, that’s a serious number. He was the kind of forward who could kill a shift before it started for the other team - forcing turnovers, disrupting possession, and making opponents work for every inch.
When he got time in the offensive zone, he didn’t waste it either.
That style fits Ruff’s vision. When Ruff arrived in April 2024, he made it plain that he wanted a team built on grit, work ethic, and the ability to win tight 3-2 games.
That approach was part of the reason the Sabres moved on from Jeff Skinner soon after Ruff took over. Ostlund checks those boxes: relentless, responsible, and detail-oriented.
The offense is still catching up. Last season, Evolving Hockey had Ostlund in the 38th percentile offensively, with a GAR around three.
That’s not the finished product, but it doesn’t have to be. The comparison that comes to mind is Zach Benson when he first entered the league.
Benson came in with the defensive side already working. He ranked in the 76th percentile as a rookie and jumped to the 98th percentile in his second season.
The scoring took longer to bloom: 30 points as a rookie, 28 in his second season, then 43 last season, including 30 assists. That’s the kind of growth path that makes Ostlund’s deal look a lot more interesting than it did at first glance.
There’s a reason for that optimism beyond theory. To start training camp, Ostlund has been centering the third line with Benson and Jack Quinn on his wings.
If that group stays together for a full season, a 30-35-point year is a reasonable expectation. If they really click, he could push toward 50 points with around 35 assists.
The bigger point is that Ostlund already has the hard part in place. The defensive foundation is there, and it’s strong. Once the offense comes along - and the expectation here is that it will - he becomes a real headache for opposing teams.
From Buffalo’s perspective, the contract could age beautifully. With the salary cap projected to rise significantly, getting Ostlund at $6.6 million for eight years has the feel of a potential bargain.
If he develops into a consistent 55-point player who brings borderline elite defense, the value gets downright lopsided, especially with the kind of deals handed out on Sept. 15 to players with similar age and experience. One example is Washington Capitals forward Ryan Leonard, who signed an eight-year contract carrying a $10.5 million AAV.
The benefit for the Sabres goes beyond one player’s value, too. The lower cap hit gives them flexibility for the future, including possible extensions for Konsta Helenius, Olen Zellweger, Quinn, and even prospects who could become full-time NHL players, such as Radim Mrtka and Daxon Rudolph. It also leaves room to take on a bigger contract in a trade or chase a more expensive free agent later without upsetting the long-term structure.
That’s the real story here. Buffalo acted early, avoided a price jump, and bought years of control before Ostlund’s market could climb.
Had they waited, he could easily have been staring at an AAV closer to eight million. Instead, the Sabres got ahead of it.
In Other News...
Sabres Roster Battle Just Got More Serious Than Fans Realized
The Sabres got a useful look at their roster mix in the Blue & Gold Scrimmage, where NHL regulars and a few AHL players were split into two groups and put through a competitive afternoon that ended with plenty of live reps for everyone involved. Goals came in the scrimmage and again in a postgame shootout, giving Buffalos coaches one more chance to evaluate who can make the next step as the preseason schedule opens Monday in Pittsburgh.
Lindy Ruff also pointed to the new collective bargaining agreement as part of the backdrop here, noting how it changes the way teams have to manage exhibition games and the veterans they dress. For a Sabres group still sorting out the edges of the roster, that makes every practice, scrimmage and preseason appearance matter a little more, because the opportunities to sort out roles are more limited than they used to be. [Read more 🡒]
Sabres Just Got A Familiar Rival That Much Tougher
Buffalo handled the Rangers well enough last season, taking two of three meetings, but the familiar matchup is about to look different. The next time these teams line up, New York is expected to bring a more complete and more demanding roster, the kind of change that can make a division rivalry feel a lot less predictable.
The Rangers have spent the offseason retooling with an eye toward tightening up the defense and raising the teams overall level, and that matters for a Sabres group that has been able to lean on recent success in the series. Buffalo is still projected to come out ahead over the course of the season, but the path there looks far less comfortable now, with fewer easy nights and a deeper opponent waiting on the other side. [Read more 🡒]
Sabres Camp Battle Could Reshape Buffalos Top Six Fast
The Sabres camp setup has already started to reveal how much flexibility Lindy Ruff has at his disposal down the middle. With several forwards able to slide between center and wing, Buffalo can mix and match its top six in ways that could help the club both balance its offense and clean up some of the faceoff issues that have lingered in recent seasons.
Ruff has described the group as the deepest center mix he has ever coached, and the current practice alignment shows just how fluid it is. Tage Thompson, Josh Norris, Noah Ostlund and Sam Carrick have all been taking shifts at center, while Ryan McLeod and Peyton Krebs have been working on the wing, leaving the Sabres with a camp battle that could quickly shape the look of the lineup. [Read more 🡒]