The Sabres’ season has already had a little bit of everything: a shaky opening stretch, then a run that’s started to steady the ship. Buffalo dropped three of its first five, but the last nine games have looked a lot more like the team it wants to be. The Sabres have picked up points in eight of those nine, and the road trip has been especially kind, with three straight wins away from home.
That kind of start always invites a closer look at what’s real and what might be early noise. With 14 games in the books, a few trends have already taken shape for Buffalo, and some are a lot easier to believe in than others.
The hottest name in the bunch is Tage Thompson, and the numbers are eye-catching enough to make anyone pause. He has 10 goals in 14 games, with five of them coming in the last two.
Thompson has never lacked for a dangerous shot, and he’s cleared the 40-goal mark in three of the last four seasons. His career best is 47, though, which is why a 60-goal pace feels like a stretch even with the way he’s rolling.
At the moment, he’s scoring at about .71 goals per game. Keep that up over an 84-game season and the math lands at 60.
But that also means he’d need 50 more goals over the final 70 games, and that’s a big ask. He looks like a real threat to get to 50, which would be a milestone in itself for the Sabres - their first 50-goal scorer since Pat LaFontaine, who had 53 in 1992-93 - but 60 still feels like too much to buy into.
Prediction: Sell
Jack Quinn, on the other hand, is making the kind of early push that’s hard to ignore. His previous high for a season was 20 goals, and he already has eight through 14 games. That puts him well on his way to a career year, and this one is an easy buy.
The start isn’t coming out of nowhere, either. Quinn closed last season strong, scoring eight times in the final 22 regular-season games and adding two more in 13 playoff games. The bigger question now is what Buffalo does with him next, since he’s in the final year of his contract and could become a restricted free agent after the season if there isn’t an extension.
Prediction: Buy
The penalty kill is a different story, and it’s been the roughest early-season number on the board. Buffalo is sitting at 68.6 percent, which ranks 29th in the league and is a steep drop from last season’s 81.9 percent, good for fourth. That kind of fall naturally raises alarms, but there are reasons to think this group can climb out of the bottom five.
The Sabres entered the season with some obvious turnover on the penalty kill. They lost two of their top six players in penalty-kill minutes in Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram, and they’ve also been missing Conor Timmons, who ranked seventh on the team in that category. Timmons appears close to returning, which would give the unit another boost.
There’s also been some recent improvement. Outside of the Ducks game, when Buffalo gave up three power-play goals, the Sabres have allowed just one power-play goal on 11 chances over their last three games. That’s not a finished product, but it does suggest the group is settling in.
Prediction: Sell
As for the bigger picture, Buffalo is still chasing something it hasn’t done since 2006-07: finish with 100 or more points in consecutive seasons. The Sabres piled up 109 points last season and won the Atlantic Division, and right now they’re tracking toward 102.
That projection has gotten a lift from the recent win streak, but it’s also been helped by Buffalo’s ability to survive nights when it hasn’t been at its best. There have already been games this season when the Sabres didn’t look like the better team, yet they found enough to force overtime and bank a point.
There’s a long way to go with 70 games left, but Buffalo has put itself in a strong position to stay in the 100-point neighborhood again.
In Other News...
Tage Thompson May Have Solved One Sabres Problem While Exposing Another
Moving Tage Thompson to the wing has given the Sabres a cleaner look in the offensive zone, and the early returns have been hard to ignore. Thompson has been driving Buffalos recent wins with a surge that has him leading the team in goals, while Zach Bensons presence alongside him has helped give that line a more balanced feel and more consistent puck movement.
The tradeoff, of course, is what Buffalo gives up down the middle to make it work. Thompson looks more comfortable on the wing, but the Sabres are still sorting through center depth and trying to keep the lineup from feeling thin in that spot, a reminder that one fix can create another problem just as quickly. [Read more 🡒]
Sabres Crease Could Change Fast With One Return Closing In
Alex Lyon is back on the ice with the Sabres and moving closer to clearance after an upper-body injury, a welcome development for a team that has been juggling its crease with a two-goalie rotation. Buffalo would like to get back to a three-goalie setup once Lyon is ready, which would give the staff more flexibility as it sorts through the early-season grind.
The goalie situation is only part of a busy injury picture around the roster. Jiri Kulich has returned from concussion protocol, while Conor Timmins and Justin Danforth have resumed practice, but Zach Bensons status remains uncertain and Konsta Helenius is now week-to-week with an upper-body injury. For a Sabres team trying to stabilize its lineup, Lyons return could come at just the right time, even if the next step is still waiting on final clearance. [Read more 🡒]
Sabres Are Finally Showing The Identity Fans Have Waited For
A road trip that started with questions ended with Buffalo looking a lot more like the team its fans have been waiting to see. The Sabres capped a three-game winning streak with a 3-2 win over the Kings at Crypto.com Arena, and the performance had the kind of ingredients that have been missing too often this season: timely scoring, a steadier power play and a goalie who made the necessary stops.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen turned aside 27 shots for his fourth win, while Tage Thompson supplied two goals and continued to drive the offense when it mattered most. The bigger takeaway for Buffalo is not just the result, but the way it came together away from home, with the special teams showing real progress and the group starting to play with a clearer identity. [Read more 🡒]