Rumors about NHL expansion are back in the air, and Buffalo Sabres general manager Jarmo Kekalainen would be staring at a familiar kind of headache if they turn into something real.
Hockey agent Allan Walsh recently said expansion is "coming," with new franchises in Atlanta and Houston. If that happens, the league’s current teams would likely be forced to give up two players apiece in the next expansion draft. For Buffalo, that could create real pressure to act boldly, especially if Kekalainen decides the roster depth he’s built is better used in a trade for a true difference-maker.
That’s the backdrop for any early guess at the Sabres’ protection list. Using the rules from the NHL’s most recent expansion drafts, Buffalo would likely go with the 11-player format: seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie.
The assumption here is also that prospects such as Konsta Helenius and Daxon Rudolph, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, would still be automatically protected when the draft hits. If expansion lands later than 2028, that may not hold.
Up front, the projected protected group is Tage Thompson, Zach Benson, Josh Doan, Josh Norris, Ryan McLeod, Noah Ostlund and Jiri Kulich.
The toughest omission is Jack Quinn. He’s been a trade candidate in recent years and is scheduled to become a restricted free agent in 2027, so there’s a real chance he’s no longer in Buffalo by the time an expansion draft arrives.
Still, Quinn could change the conversation if he puts together another strong season. He just finished with a career-high 51 points, scoring 20 goals and adding 31 assists in 82 games, and Buffalo will need more from him after the offseason departure of Alex Tuch.
If the Sabres lock Quinn up to a long-term extension next summer, he’d be close to a guaranteed protection pick.
Peyton Krebs and Beck Malenstyn, both re-signed after the 2025-26 season, are the odd men out in this projection. Krebs, in particular, could draw interest from a new team as a bottom-six center.
The protected forwards are the obvious names first. Thompson, Benson and Doan are no-brainers. Ostlund and Kulich, who is coming back from a blood clot, can also get there with a couple of strong seasons before any expansion decision.
Norris and McLeod are the two wild cards. Norris can be a real offensive piece when he’s healthy, but his injury history makes him harder to trust. If Buffalo ever wanted to free up money, leaving him exposed would create $8 million in cap space, though that feels unlikely.
McLeod has been a dependable middle-six center for the Sabres over the last two years, but his rough playoff showing left some fans cold. If the front office wants to go in a different direction, a trade sounds more likely than simply exposing him.
On defense, there’s almost no mystery: Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Mattias Samuelsson.
That group is signed through at least 2030, and Buffalo has no reason to tinker with a blue line that could stay together for a long time. The bigger question is what happens with Olen Zellweger, who was signed to a three-year extension after Buffalo acquired him from the Anaheim Ducks in late June.
Zellweger, a 2021 second-round pick, showed plenty of offensive upside in three seasons with the Ducks, but his defensive play raised concerns. He’ll need to clean that up to become a true top-four defenseman in his prime. If he takes that step over the next two years, the Sabres could head into the 2028 offseason with a trade decision looming, depending on when expansion actually arrives.
For now, though, Zellweger doesn’t jump Dahlin, Power or Samuelsson on Buffalo’s depth chart. And Kekalainen won’t want to lose a player like that for nothing.
That’s part of why having Rudolph in the pipeline matters. He gives Buffalo a potential answer for a second-pair role with Power down the road.
In goal, the projected protected goalie is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
An expansion draft could also strengthen the case for Buffalo to swing big for Winnipeg Jets star Connor Hellebuyck, a move that was heavily rumored before the 2026 NHL Draft. The Sabres got solid regular-season work from a three-goalie setup of UPL, Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis last season, but the long-term picture is still unsettled.
Lyon is 33 and set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2027, while Ellis still has to prove he can be more than a No. 3 option.
Luukkonen, who is signed through 2029, has had strong stretches as Buffalo’s starter, posting a .910 save percentage in 2023-24 and a .909 mark last season. The problem is consistency, and that’s left open questions about whether he’s truly a No. 1 goalie.
If the Sabres make a splash for Hellebuyck, the protection picture gets a lot simpler and Buffalo could shift back toward a more traditional two-goalie setup.
Short of that kind of move, UPL has the inside track to be the protected netminder.
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