Noah Ostlund’s name was missing from a recent sophomore breakout list, and the numbers suggest that was a real oversight.
Daily Faceoff’s Mike Gould recently assembled a group of players he expects to take a step in their second NHL season. The list included some obvious choices, such as the New York Rangers’ Gabe Perreault, the San Jose Sharks’ Michael Misa, and the Washington Capitals’ Ryan Leonard. But Buffalo Sabres forward Noah Ostlund didn’t make the cut, even though his rookie-year production stacks up well with the rest of the group.
Among the six forwards on the seven-player list, Ostlund was tied with Perreault and Danila Yurov for second in points with 27. Games played varied quite a bit across the board, but even when looking at scoring rate, Ostlund still held his own.
His 0.45 points per game trailed only a few of the names on the list, and it was still better than Yurov’s 0.37. It also sat in the same neighborhood as Misa’s 0.47.
The bigger case for Ostlund, though, is opportunity.
That’s the part Gould seemed to miss. Buffalo has lost Alex Tuch and will need younger skaters to help replace that offense. Ostlund isn’t being asked to absorb all of Tuch’s production, but the opening is there for his role to grow, and with that should come more ice time to build on what he already showed.
That kind of runway isn’t available for every player on the list. Leonard, for example, may not have the same path with the Capitals adding Jordan Kyrou, Boone Jenner, and Tuch this offseason. And on teams still in the middle of a rebuild, like the Rangers, a player can either benefit from being one of the few real threats or get picked apart because opponents know exactly who the danger man is.
Buffalo sits in a much better middle ground for Ostlund. The Sabres have enough talent around him to support growth, but also a clear opening in their top six after losing Tuch. That could push Ostlund beyond the 13:58 he averaged last season and give him a real chance to become a bigger part of the offense.
There’s also a lane for him to contribute more on the power play. If he keeps producing with the same efficiency he showed as a rookie, the ingredients are there for a breakout.
So while the list got some things right, Sabres fans probably won’t be shocked if Ostlund ends up proving the omission wrong and becomes one of the NHL’s best sophomore stories next season.
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