Josh Doan’s Extension: Smart Bet or Risky Gamble for the Sabres?
Josh Doan is having the kind of season that turns heads. After being traded from the Utah Mammoth to the Buffalo Sabres last summer, the 23-year-old winger has taken a noticeable step forward in his development. But now that Buffalo has locked him up with a long-term extension, the question isn’t just whether Doan is good - it’s whether he’s good enough to justify the gamble.
Let’s break it down.
Doan’s Production: Progress, But Not Proven
Through 113 NHL games, Doan has tallied 27 goals and 36 assists - 63 points in total. That’s a 0.56 point-per-game pace, which doesn’t scream “superstar,” but it’s respectable for a young forward still carving out his place in the league.
This season, though, he’s hit another gear. With 15 goals and 20 assists in 51 games, he’s already posted a career-best 35 points - and we’re not even at the finish line yet.
That leap forward is encouraging. It shows growth, confidence, and an ability to contribute consistently at the NHL level.
But it also raises a familiar question in the NHL contract world: are the Sabres paying Doan for what he is, or for what they hope he becomes?
The Projection vs. Production Dilemma
Doan’s extension is built on projection. That’s not a knock - it’s just the reality of how these deals often work.
Teams try to get ahead of a breakout, locking in a player before their price tag skyrockets. But when you do that, you’re betting on potential, not production.
Let’s put this in perspective. Compare Doan’s numbers to Pierre Engvall, a player who’s been the subject of criticism for a similar type of deal.
Engvall has 92 points in 224 games - a 0.41 point-per-game clip. Doan’s pace is better, but not dramatically.
And while Engvall’s contract has been labeled as an overpay, Doan’s deal is even more expensive on average annual value.
There’s another wrinkle here: Doan’s linemates. He’s playing alongside Tage Thompson - one of the league’s premier power forwards.
That kind of support can elevate a player’s numbers, especially someone still developing. Engvall, meanwhile, spent much of his time with JG Pageau - a solid player, but not exactly the same offensive catalyst.
The concern isn’t that Doan won’t live up to the deal - it’s that we don’t know yet. One strong season, even one as promising as this, doesn’t always translate into long-term consistency.
The Sabres’ Bigger Picture
This move also speaks to where Buffalo is as a franchise. The Sabres are in a playoff spot - for now - but they’re far from a finished product. This is still a team in transition, trying to build something sustainable after years of missed opportunities and roster reshuffling.
For smaller-market teams like Buffalo, keeping young talent is crucial. Letting a promising player walk - or even risk losing them in restricted free agency - can set a rebuild back years. So the Sabres are trying to get ahead of that by locking in Doan now, hoping he becomes a core piece of their future.
But that approach comes with risk. When you commit big money to a player based on projection, you’re tying up cap space that might be needed elsewhere if things don’t pan out. It’s a delicate balance - especially when the team isn’t quite out of the woods yet in terms of playoff security or long-term roster stability.
What Comes Next?
This deal doesn’t doom the Sabres, not by any stretch. Doan has shown real signs of becoming a difference-maker, and if he continues on this trajectory, the contract could end up looking like a steal a few years from now.
But if this season turns out to be an outlier - a flash in the pan rather than the new normal - then Buffalo could find itself with a contract that limits flexibility and raises questions about roster construction.
The Sabres are betting on Doan not just to continue producing, but to grow into a top-six staple - someone who can drive play, not just ride shotgun next to a star. If he does, this move will look bold and brilliant. If he doesn’t, it’ll be another cautionary tale about paying for potential before it turns into proof.
For now, it’s a wait-and-see situation. But make no mistake - the clock is already ticking.