The Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings are locked into what’s shaping up to be a long-term tug-of-war in the Atlantic Division. And while the rivalry is heating up on the ice, Detroit may have just handed Buffalo a potential off-ice advantage.
On Wednesday, the Red Wings announced a three-year contract extension for defenseman Ben Chiarot, carrying an annual cap hit of $3.85 million. At first glance, it looks like a team doubling down on veteran stability. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers raise some serious red flags.
Chiarot, now 34, has struggled to keep pace in recent seasons. Advanced metrics consistently rank him among the least effective defensemen in the league. And while he brings size and a physical edge, the results when he's on the ice-both for his team and his defensive partners-have been tough to ignore.
Analytics voices around the league didn’t hold back. Dom Luszczyszyn estimated Chiarot’s market value at just $800,000, suggesting Detroit is overpaying by more than $9 million over the life of the deal. JFresh Hockey echoed the sentiment, pointing out that despite Chiarot’s mobility and puck-carrying ability, his presence tends to tilt the ice in the wrong direction.
In a rising salary cap environment, overpaying a depth defenseman might not completely derail a roster. But it does limit flexibility-and that’s where the Sabres come in.
Buffalo GM Jarmo Kekalainen has his own cap conundrum brewing, and Detroit’s misstep could offer a valuable lesson. The Sabres are currently weighing a much more significant financial decision: what to do about Alex Tuch.
Tuch, the 29-year-old power forward and hometown product, is reportedly seeking an eight-year extension worth around $10.5 million per season. There’s no question he’s an important piece of Buffalo’s core.
Since the start of last season, he’s posted 110 points in 133 games and plays in all situations-including a key role on the penalty kill. At 6-foot-4, he brings the kind of size, speed, and two-way game that teams covet.
But $10.5 million per year? That’s elite money, and the numbers suggest Tuch might not deliver elite value throughout the life of such a deal.
Luszczyszyn’s projection pegs his average market value during a max-length extension at $7.1 million-a significant gap. And given that Tuch would be in his late 30s by the end of the contract, there’s a real risk the deal could age poorly.
That’s the tightrope Kekalainen is walking. The Sabres aren’t swimming in cap space like they once were.
The Jeff Skinner buyout will count $6.4 million against the cap next season. Key young players like Zach Benson and Michael Kesselring are due for raises as restricted free agents.
Peyton Krebs is also up for a new deal, and Josh Doan just inked a seven-year extension.
So what’s the play here?
If Tuch won’t budge from his asking price, the Sabres have to consider all options-including a trade. That doesn’t mean a fire sale.
But if there’s a “hockey trade” out there-one that brings back a younger NHL player under contract beyond this season-it’s worth exploring. That kind of move could help Buffalo stay competitive now while protecting its long-term cap health.
On the flip side, if the only offers on the table are futures-picks and prospects from contenders-then the calculus changes. In that case, Tuch becomes an “own rental.”
You keep him for the playoff push and revisit things in the summer. That’s not a bad outcome, especially if the Sabres are in the thick of the postseason race.
The best-case scenario? Tuch finds enough satisfaction in the Sabres’ direction and offers a hometown discount to stick around.
But if that doesn’t happen, Buffalo can’t afford to let sentiment drive its decision-making. Overpaying aging veterans rarely ends well-just ask the Red Wings.
For Kekalainen and the Sabres, the next few months will be about walking that fine line between loyalty and logic. And if they play it right, Detroit’s misstep with Chiarot might just give Buffalo the edge it needs in a division where every dollar-and every decision-counts.