Monday night’s Bills-Rams matchup has the feel of a heavyweight spot, and the betting board agrees. Los Angeles enters Week 5 at 2-2 but still sits atop the odds list to win the Lombardi Trophy, with Buffalo right behind it despite coming off its first loss of the season.
That loss came in ugly fashion for the Bills, who were beaten by the New England Patriots as 6.5-point favorites. Now they head into a road date with the reigning MVP and Puka Nacua, a pairing that is expected to keep ramping up as the season moves along.
The sharpest concern for Buffalo is on defense. That unit has already been a problem this year, and it showed again in Week 4.
Through four games, the Bills rank 30th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent success rate. Only the Lions and Cowboys have been worse.
That sets up well for a Rams defense that has been one of the league’s best so far. Los Angeles ranks third in opponent EPA per play and fifth in opponent success rate, and it also checks in as a top-10 run defense. That matters against a Bills offense that needs room to get rolling.
If Buffalo can’t consistently put points on the board, the Rams have the kind of defense that can stretch the gap and make this a difficult night. That’s why the lean here is to back Los Angeles as a home favorite and lay the points.
In Other News...
Bills Face A New Concern With D.J. Moore Before Rams Game
D.J. Moores first season with the Bills has already taken an uneasy turn. Acquired from the Bears in the offseason, the receiver has been dealing with a shoulder injury since Week 4 against the Patriots, and Buffalo got another reminder of his status Thursday when he was not on the practice field.
Moore left that Patriots game in the first half and did not return, and the injury has limited his production since. With the Rams coming up, Buffalo has a new concern surrounding a player it brought in to give the passing game another layer, and his availability is suddenly a storyline worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Allen Just Shut Down One Patriots-Bills Storyline
Josh Allens legs became a talking point after Buffalos win over New England, but the quarterback tried to tamp that down as the Bills turned their attention to the Rams in Week 5. Allen was efficient through the air, going 23 of 33 for 253 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and he also found the end zone once on the ground despite logging only five carries for four yards.
The speculation picked up after he took a low hit to his left knee in the Week 3 win over the Chargers, leading some to wonder whether it had changed the way he ran against the Patriots. Allen pushed back on that idea, keeping the focus on moving forward as Buffalo keeps its streak of regular-season starts intact, with the veteran quarterback not having missed one since 2018. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Early-Game Approach Is Putting Joe Brady Under Pressure
Joe Bradys first season running the Bills has started the way plenty of coaches would take it, with a 3-1 record and a team still trying to settle into a new rhythm. One of the clearest shifts has come at the coin toss, where Buffalo has chosen to receive first every time after winning, a departure from recent seasons and a sign of the more aggressive tone Brady wanted from the offense.
So far, though, the payoff has been limited. The Bills have managed points on only one of their four opening drives, and the early-script issue has become part of the broader evaluation of a team still finding its footing on both sides of the ball, especially with the defense adjusting under Jim Leonhard. It is the kind of small but revealing trend that can linger if the first-drive production does not start matching the intent behind it. [Read more 🡒]