Ten days from now, the New England Patriots will take the field in Super Bowl LX-a sentence few would’ve predicted back in Week 1. That’s because this Patriots team, now one win away from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, opened their season with a head-scratching loss to a Raiders squad that would go on to finish with the NFL’s worst record.
Let’s rewind. In that season opener, the Patriots fell 20-13 to Las Vegas.
Geno Smith lit up New England’s defense for 362 yards and a touchdown, while the Patriots’ offense struggled to find rhythm. Drake Maye tossed an interception, and Andy Borregales missed a 40-yard field goal-his only miss through the first 10 weeks of the season.
It was a sloppy start for a team that would go on to become one of the league’s most balanced squads down the stretch.
That Week 1 loss looks even more bizarre in hindsight considering what happened with the Raiders. After that opening win, things unraveled fast in Las Vegas.
Pete Carroll’s return to the sidelines started with promise, but the Raiders collapsed to a 3-14 finish, securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Carroll didn’t make it through the season.
Now, with the Patriots standing on the doorstep of another championship, that early stumble stands out as one of the most surprising results of the entire NFL season.
And historically speaking, this kind of thing is rare. In the Super Bowl era, only three other teams have made it to the big game after losing to the team that would eventually land the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Let’s break those down:
1968: Bills 37, Jets 35
In one of the most improbable upsets of the era, the 1-12-1 Buffalo Bills handed the eventual Super Bowl III champion New York Jets their only loss to a bottom-feeder that season.
Joe Namath threw five interceptions in the Week 4 loss. Buffalo’s lone win helped them lock up the top pick in the 1969 NFL Draft, which they used on USC running back O.J.
Simpson.
1987: Falcons 21, Washington 20
Gerald Riggs found the end zone in the fourth quarter to lift Atlanta past Washington in Week 2.
Washington would bounce back in a big way, eventually steamrolling the Broncos 42-10 in Super Bowl XXII. The Falcons?
They limped to a 3-12 record and used the No. 1 pick in 1988 on linebacker Aundray Bruce, who carved out an 11-year NFL career but never quite lived up to the top-pick billing.
1997: Colts 41, Packers 38
This one was a shootout.
The Colts, 13.5-point underdogs, stunned Green Bay with a last-second 20-yard field goal by Cary Blanchard. Paul Justin threw for 340 yards and outdueled Brett Favre, who was picked off twice.
The Packers still made it to Super Bowl XXXII, where they fell to the Broncos. Indianapolis, meanwhile, finished 3-13 and used the No. 1 pick in 1998 to draft a quarterback by the name of Peyton Manning.
So where does that leave the Patriots? If they knock off the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, they’ll become the first team in 39 years to win a Super Bowl in the same season they lost to the league’s worst team. That’s not just a quirky stat-it’s a testament to how far this New England team has come since September.
They finished the regular season 14-3, riding a defense that found its identity late and an offense that matured week by week. But that Week 1 stumble in Vegas still looms large as one of the most unexpected outcomes of the season. If anything, it’s a reminder of how unpredictable this league can be-and how quickly a team can evolve when it finds its footing.