Josh Allen opens the 2026 season sitting at the front of the AFC MVP betting line, but the market isn’t treating this like a runaway. The Buffalo Bills quarterback is the favorite, sure, yet the pack behind him is close enough that one hot start could change everything.
Allen is listed around +550 to +600, depending on the sportsbook. That gives him the top spot, but only by a slim margin.
Lamar Jackson is next in line at +650 to +750, keeping the Baltimore Ravens quarterback squarely in the same conversation. The gap between him and Allen is small enough that the two feel like they’re in the same tier.
Joe Burrow follows at +800 to +1000. When he’s healthy, Burrow is always in the MVP mix, and those numbers reflect both his ceiling and the uncertainty that comes with Cincinnati’s broader outlook over a full season.
Drake Maye is also right there at +850 to +1200. After New England’s 2025 division title and Super Bowl run, the betting market is clearly buying him as an MVP-caliber quarterback if the Patriots stay near the top of the AFC East in 2026.
Justin Herbert comes in at +900 to +1100, which keeps him firmly in the hunt as well. He’s the kind of quarterback who can pile up numbers fast and climb the board quickly if the Chargers start winning at a high level.
Patrick Mahomes rounds out the group at +1000 to +1200. That’s still very much within range for a player who is almost always part of the MVP discussion when Kansas City is competing near the top of the AFC. His odds would likely be better if he wasn't coming off of a torn ACL.
Put it all together, and the picture is pretty clear: Allen is the early leader, but the AFC quarterback race is tightly packed behind him. No one is breaking away yet, and the order could change quickly once the season starts and the wins begin to stack up.
This is not a one-player race at the top. Allen just happens to be the first name on the board.
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Three Young Bills Are Already Facing A Serious Camp Warning
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Sedrick VanPran-Granger, Tyrell Shavers and Ray Davis are among the names worth watching because each faces a different kind of squeeze. VanPran-Granger has to show he can hold up where the Bills need him most, Shavers is fighting through a crowded receiver picture, and Davis is dealing with added competition in the backfield, which makes these first camp weeks especially important for three players trying to stay on the right side of the roster conversation. [Read more 🡒]
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Parker has already found the kind of early support that can speed that process along, and he has made it clear that one veteran in particular has stood out since he arrived. For a player being eased into a depth role as Buffalo reshapes its front under Jim Leonhard, having that kind of guidance matters, especially with the Bills hoping the rookie can absorb the playbook and push toward a bigger role sooner rather than later. [Read more 🡒]
Bills Just Sent Another Telling Message About Their Receiver Room
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Thompkins, who spent last season in Atlanta mostly on special teams, fits the kind of low-cost, flexible profile Buffalo has been chasing. The question now is whether he can carve out a real role as a gadget option and return specialist, or simply become another offseason addition in a crowded competition for spots at the back end of the roster. [Read more 🡒]