Josh Allen is once again putting up MVP-caliber numbers, but this season has brought a new wrinkle to the conversation: the big plays are still there, but so are the costly ones.
Coming off his 2024 MVP campaign, Allen hasn’t slowed down in terms of production. He’s already thrown for over 3,000 yards with 22 passing touchdowns, and as always, he’s been a force on the ground-adding nearly 500 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns with his legs. That dual-threat ability continues to make him one of the most dangerous players in football, and on any given Sunday, he can take over a game like few others.
But while the highlight reel remains packed, the margin for error has narrowed. Allen’s knack for avoiding negative plays-something that defined his MVP season-has taken a step back.
His interception rate has more than doubled from last year, climbing from 1.2% to 2.6%. And the sacks?
Those have gone up too. After posting an almost-unbelievable 2.8% sack rate in 2024 (especially for a quarterback who thrives on extending plays), that number has ballooned to 7.6% this season.
That shift hasn’t just been statistical-it’s been situational. In each of Buffalo’s four losses, Allen has turned the ball over twice.
That includes a narrow 23-20 defeat to the Patriots, a game that proved pivotal in pushing New England into the AFC East lead. The Bills have only managed to win one game this year when Allen has multiple turnovers: a 44-32 shootout against the Buccaneers where he still managed to account for six total touchdowns.
That’s the kind of performance that reminds you why he’s still in the MVP conversation, even if the path has been bumpier.
And to be clear, Allen hasn’t lost his edge. In fact, he’s been slightly more explosive through the air, averaging a career-best 8.2 yards per pass.
He’s engineered comeback wins over the Bengals and Ravens, and outdueled Mahomes once again in a regular-season thriller against the Chiefs. The big-game poise is still there.
The arm strength, the improvisation, the competitive fire-it’s all intact.
But what made Allen’s 2024 season so special wasn’t just the fireworks-it was the control. He was taking chances without taking unnecessary risks.
This year, the balance has tilted. The turnovers are creeping in, and in a tight AFC playoff race, every possession matters.
Right now, the Bills sit at 9-4, second in the AFC East, and holding the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture. With four games left-against the Patriots, Browns, Eagles, and Jets-Buffalo’s postseason fate is still very much in their hands.
But if they’re going to make a real run, Allen will need to tighten things up. The Bills don’t need him to be a superhero on every snap-they need him to be sharp, efficient, and selective with when to go for broke.
There’s no question Allen is still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. If you’re building a team to win one game, there’s a strong case he’s the first guy off the board. But for Buffalo to climb back to the top of the AFC and make a deep playoff push, they’ll need their franchise quarterback to rediscover the discipline that made him the league’s most complete weapon just a season ago.
With the postseason looming and the margin for error shrinking, Allen’s play down the stretch could define not only the Bills’ season-but the AFC playoff picture as a whole.