The Buffalo Bills aren’t officially locked into the playoff bracket just yet, but with their 11th win of the season now in the books, it’s not a matter of if-it’s when. And with the Baltimore Ravens falling to the Patriots on Sunday night, the AFC playoff picture is starting to come into focus. For the Bills, that picture is looking a little more manageable than usual.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t the same AFC gauntlet we’ve seen in recent years. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and likely Lamar Jackson-three of the biggest obstacles in Buffalo’s recent postseason runs-are expected to be watching from home this time around.
That opens the door for a new crop of contenders, many of whom are led by younger, less battle-tested quarterbacks. Outside of Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh, no one in the current AFC field can match Josh Allen’s playoff résumé.
But that doesn’t mean the Bills can coast their way to Super Bowl LX. Far from it. Every team left standing sees the same opportunity Buffalo does-and they’re just as hungry to take advantage of it.
What the Bills do have, though, is Josh Allen. And when Allen is on, especially in the postseason, he’s as dangerous as anyone in the league. The question is: who in the AFC can go toe-to-toe with him when it matters most?
According to ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, there’s one name Bills fans should have circled: Trevor Lawrence.
Speaking on ESPN’s UnsportsmanLike radio show last Thursday, Orlovsky didn’t hesitate. “Trevor Lawrence,” he said.
“Trevor Lawrence, right now, is as hot as anybody. I think what they’ve done with him in Jacksonville-getting him to think less and react more-the freak-azoid athlete… If he continues to play to this level, they can go play and beat anybody.”
That was before Lawrence and the Jaguars marched into Denver and handed the top-seeded Broncos a two-touchdown loss. Four total touchdowns from Lawrence later, and Jacksonville is riding a six-game win streak with a chaotic, but very real, path to the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Now, while a Wild Card matchup between the Bills and Jaguars is technically on the board-with Buffalo currently slotted as the 6-seed and Jacksonville as the 3-it’s more likely the Bills end up as the 5-seed, which would send them to Pittsburgh for the opening round, assuming the Steelers hang on to the AFC North.
Still, Jacksonville isn’t going away. If they don’t meet Buffalo in the first round, they could be lurking deeper in the bracket. And if Lawrence keeps playing at this level, that’s a matchup that could tilt the scales in unexpected ways.
The Bills have their own issues to sort out before they can start dreaming about February. The defense has been up and down, and in the playoffs, inconsistency on that side of the ball can be a killer. Allen’s brilliance can only carry them so far if the defense can’t hold up its end of the bargain.
That’s where things get interesting. Because if Trevor Lawrence keeps ascending-and if the Jaguars’ defense can support him-Buffalo could find itself in a familiar position: watching a red-hot quarterback end their season.
Only this time, it wouldn’t be Mahomes or Burrow doing the damage. It’d be a new face playing the same role.
For now, the Bills are in control of their fate. But the AFC isn’t short on challengers, and Trevor Lawrence is making a strong case that he’s ready to be the next big problem for anyone chasing a Lombardi.