The first half of the 2026 NFL regular season wraps up Monday night with a 6-1 Bills team heading into Minnesota to face a 6-1 Vikings squad.
It’s the kind of matchup that looks almost backward on paper. Buffalo has been the league’s most dangerous offense through eight weeks, but its defense has been a problem. Minnesota flips that script, bringing the NFL’s top defense while struggling on the other side of the ball.
Josh Allen is the obvious headliner whenever the Bills are involved, and he comes into Week 9 as the clear MVP favorite. Through seven games, Allen has averaged 356.1 passing yards per game with 11 passing touchdowns.
He’s also piled up 270 rushing yards and nine rushing scores. The big question Monday night is whether he can do that against the best defense in football in a prime-time setting.
Another big outing would make him the odds-on favorite for his second career MVP.
The betting angle points to Minnesota getting the points. In the Week 9 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, the case was made for backing the Vikings on Monday night because the teams are essentially mirror images: Buffalo sits first in EPA per play and 27th in opponent EPA per play, while Minnesota is 30th in EPA per play and first in opponent EPA per play.
The line has the Bills favored by three on the road, even though they lean heavily on the run and now have to deal with the league’s best run defense. If Minnesota can slow Buffalo on the ground and generate even a little offense of its own, this has the ingredients to stay tight. That’s why the pick is Minnesota plus the points.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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