NFL MVP Race Heats Up in Week 16: Josh Allen Surging, Stafford Still Leading
Josh Allen doesn’t seem interested in making things easy - not for defenses, not for fans, and certainly not for himself. The Bills haven’t scored first in a game since November 2, when they jumped out to an early lead in a win over Kansas City.
Since then, every Buffalo victory has required Allen to play hero ball - and he’s delivered, time and again. Whether it’s Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, or New England, Allen has had to dig deep and rally his team to the finish line.
That kind of clutch play is starting to turn heads again in the MVP conversation. Just a few weeks ago, Allen was buried on the odds board at +3000.
Now? He’s very much in the mix.
Let’s break down the top four MVP contenders as we head into Week 16.
1. Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
The Rams’ late-season surge has been fueled by vintage Matthew Stafford. He’s been sharp, decisive, and - most importantly - healthy.
Stafford’s arm talent has never been in question, but what’s been most impressive is how he’s elevated the Rams’ offense when it matters most. With the NFC playoff picture tightening, Stafford has kept L.A. right in the thick of it.
His chemistry with his receivers is clicking, and he’s making throws that few quarterbacks in the league can replicate. The Rams have leaned on his experience and poise, and he’s responded with MVP-caliber performances. As of now, he remains the favorite - but the gap is closing.
2. Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills
If the MVP award went to the player who wears the most hats, Allen would win it in a landslide. He’s Buffalo’s quarterback, yes - but he’s also their leading rusher, emotional leader, and, more often than not, their closer.
Allen has had to claw the Bills back into games week after week, and he’s done it with a mix of improvisation, power, and sheer will. His ability to extend plays, shrug off defenders, and hit tight windows is unmatched. And now that Buffalo is back in the playoff hunt, Allen’s narrative is gaining steam.
He’s not just putting up numbers - he’s carrying a franchise on his back. If the Bills can string together a few more wins and sneak into the postseason, Allen’s MVP case becomes very real, very quickly.
3. Drake Maye - New England Patriots
Yes, the rookie is in the conversation. Drake Maye has turned heads in New England, not just for his poise under pressure but for how quickly he’s adapted to the pro game. The Patriots haven’t had much to cheer about offensively in recent years, but Maye has injected life into the franchise.
He’s shown command of the offense, made smart decisions, and flashed the kind of arm talent that made him a top draft pick. While the Patriots’ record may hold him back in the final voting, there’s no denying Maye’s impact. He’s not just playing well for a rookie - he’s playing well, period.
If he finishes strong, he could earn serious votes, even if the MVP itself remains a long shot.
4. Sam Darnold - Seattle Seahawks
Darnold’s inclusion in the MVP conversation might surprise some, but his play in Seattle has been quietly effective. He’s managed the offense with confidence and has taken care of the football - two things that have often eluded him in previous stops.
The Seahawks have leaned on their ground game and defense, but Darnold’s contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s been efficient, composed, and has made big throws when needed. In a crowded NFC playoff race, his steady hand could be the difference-maker down the stretch.
While he’s more of a dark horse in this race, Darnold’s resurgence has been one of the more under-the-radar stories of the season.
Final Thoughts
The MVP race is far from settled. Stafford’s consistency and the Rams’ playoff push keep him in the driver’s seat, but Josh Allen is charging hard - and doing it in dramatic fashion. Drake Maye is the wild card, a rookie with poise beyond his years, while Sam Darnold has quietly steadied the ship in Seattle.
With two weeks left in the regular season, there’s still time for a signature moment - the kind of “did-you-see-that?” play that sticks in voters’ minds. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned this year, it’s that Josh Allen lives for those moments.