After a wild Saturday in the Divisional Round, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has a new favorite to win Super Bowl 60 - and it’s a team that just made a serious statement on both sides of the ball.
The Seattle Seahawks, fresh off a blowout win over the San Francisco 49ers, are now projected by the FPI to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. Just days ago, the model had the Los Angeles Rams as the most likely champion. But Saturday’s results - and one major injury - have reshaped the playoff landscape in a big way.
Let’s break it down.
Seattle Surges After Statement Win
Seattle’s dismantling of San Francisco wasn’t just a win - it was a message. The Seahawks dominated from start to finish, and the FPI took notice.
The model, which runs 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, adjusts daily based on team strength, recent results, and remaining schedule. And Seattle’s performance checked all the right boxes.
The defense clamped down on a 49ers offense that had been rolling, while the Seahawks’ offense found rhythm and efficiency at the perfect time. That kind of complete showing is exactly what the FPI is built to reward - and it did. Seattle now sits atop the projections, favored to beat the Houston Texans in Super Bowl 60.
Denver Advances, But at a Cost
The Denver Broncos also punched their ticket to Championship Weekend, edging out the Buffalo Bills in a tense overtime battle. But their postseason hopes took a major hit late in that game when quarterback Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle. He’s now out for the AFC Championship, and that changes everything.
Without Nix, Denver's offensive ceiling drops significantly. The FPI model responded accordingly, downgrading their Super Bowl chances and removing them from the top tier of contenders. It’s a brutal blow for a team that had been gaining serious momentum.
Houston on the Rise
With Denver’s outlook dampened, the door swings wide open for the Houston Texans. The model now views them as the AFC’s best shot at reaching the Super Bowl. Houston’s path isn’t easy, but with Denver weakened and the Bills eliminated, the Texans suddenly find themselves in a very real position to make a run.
What Is the FPI Telling Us?
For those unfamiliar, ESPN’s Football Power Index is a predictive model designed to measure team strength and forecast future performance. It calculates how many points above or below average each team is and uses that data to simulate the rest of the season - 10,000 times over. The result is a daily-updated projection of how things might shake out.
And right now, those simulations are painting a clear picture: Seattle is the team to beat.
The Road Ahead
Of course, the games still have to be played. Models don’t win championships - teams do.
But the FPI isn’t just throwing darts. It’s reacting to what we’re seeing on the field, and what it saw Saturday was a Seahawks team peaking at the right time and a Broncos squad suddenly facing a massive challenge.
So, as we head into Championship Weekend, the narrative has shifted. Seattle is in the driver’s seat.
Houston is knocking on the door. And the rest of the league?
They’ll be trying to prove the numbers wrong.
Strap in - this postseason just got a whole lot more interesting.